Courting Disaster

I’d already written an article for tomorrow on something else.  Well…that has been put on hold.   The good news is that I don't have to write my next article, it's finished...

I’m not a Constitutional scholar, nor a lawyer, so I don’t have the credentials to look at the news story yesterday about a first draft leaking of a Supreme Court ruling eliminating Roe v. Wade.  Nor what the decision would mean for other current Constitutional rights.  The best I can say is that it’s just a first draft, and having written enough first drafts in my life, I know that a lot can change.  Whether a lot that’s substantive may or even will change, though, is another matter.  Let alone enough to change the perceived vote on the court.  So, I won’t address any of this on that level.

Instead, though, I think what is important to look at is what this means on the political front.  And for starters, I think this has become THE issue for the mid-terms…and for 2024.  Other issues will matter – the pandemic, inflation, the economy, Ukraine, President Biden’s approval and more.  But…abortion has become the top issue by far, because it’s the most impactful and emotional issue and has been for half a century.  And a Constitutional right may be on the verge of being taken away from over half the country.

And at this point, I don’t think it even matters if the High Court doesn’t end up voting the way this first draft suggests.  Even if the Court backtracks and doesn’t eliminate Roe v. Wade in its entirety – a) they most almost certainly restrict it deeply, and b) the fear of the Supreme Court eliminating it and Congress passing a law to eliminate all abortions is now very real and prominently on the table.

If the far-right thinks they just “owned the libs” (which I suspect is precisely what they think), they don’t realize that what they actually did was anger the American public and outrage women.  As much as abortion has been written up as a divisive issue, it is not an equally-divided issue.  About 80% of Americans think that abortion should be available to at least some degree.  And that’s “all” Americans – men and women.  One can only imagine the percentage of women only.  I haven’t seen a poll of women on the subject (I’m sure it exists), but it’s probably 90+% in favor of at least some availability of abortion.

A friend of mine commented how Republicans have generally had success promoting social issues at elections, so he just didn’t know if this too would work for them.  Though he thought it seemed to him like “overreach.”

I said I thought he was being politely cautious.  I think this is a profound “overreach.”

This isn’t 53-47 borderline social issue on personal morality.  According to the Gallup Poll, about 80% of all Americans think that some abortion should be available.  And that phenomenally high number likely pales in comparison to how many women support at least some abortion.  And that number pales to how strongly women probably feel about their support, especially compared to men who support it. 

I’m not prescient enough to know what will happen in the mid-terms – and 2024.  Maybe it will have absolutely no electoral impact to change any result.  Or perhaps a lot. But when I look at what the polls have long said for years, it’s hard to see how this potential ruling and even just the news story about it, whatever ultimately happens on the Court, favors Republicans in the election in any way.  With at least 90+% of woman likely scared and furious -- about an issue that profoundly impacts their lives, and the lives of their daughters, as well -- there isn’t a lot of wiggle room for Republican candidates who say “I support the Supreme Court on this, I support ending all abortion.”  Republicans are not going peel off a single Democratic vote on this – but there is a massive field for Democrats to peel off (not all women, but) merely 5% of Republican/Independent women votes, terrified of what a Republican Congress but also their Republican state assembly would mean to their lives, with the looming specter of a national ban passed by Congress and a far-right Supreme Court that's already undermined them all.

And how likely is it that Republican officials recognize this, as well?  You would think GOP senators and Congressmen would be out trumpeting this news, since they've been pushing it for many decades.  Instead, it's near-silence, other than talking about "the leak."  All of which points towards Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer putting an abortion bill on the agenda -- either to pass a law or at least get everyone on the record where they stand.

Another friend wrote to me that “The Dems had better finally get loud and angry.”  I replied that I feel very comfortable saying I don’t see any “Democrats had better…” about it – I think that only hours later we’re already far past that.  The TV ads are already being written.  The outreach programs are already being developed.  The “get out the vote” organizations are already setting their work in motion.

I was going to start this paragraph by saying that “The goal of Democrats will be…” but that's old news, I'm quite sure that Democrats have moved beyond the setting goals phase.  The action of Democrats will be the keep pounding this issue loudly and do everything they can to get the vote out.  I don’t know what will happen.  But I think this could FAR outpace any efforts Republicans can possibly make – because it’s a visceral life issue to woman whatever their party, and probably 90+ of them support it profoundly.

I don’t know what will happen.  But this seems to fall into the “Be careful what you wish for, because you might get it” category.  A gentle limitation of Roe v. Wade might have accomplished a lot for the far right, but – while upsetting and concerning supporters of some abortion – not horrified them and turned it into THE hot button issue of the next two elections, however the Court decides.  Instead, the far right got what they wanted (helped by four Supreme Court Justices appointed by two presidents who didn’t get a majority of the popular vote – which will only exacerbate the issue) – and in getting what they wanted, they may well have gone much too far.  Which, being far right, is not surprising.

What this also strike me as is The Peter Peter Principle.  That was something developed in a best-selling book by Laurence J. Peter, written in 1969.  It was a business observation – that could be applied to other areas of life – of how employees rise through a business’s hierarchy through promotion until they reach a “level of respective incompetence.”  In other words, they succeed but go too far.

I think the far-right fascist Republicans went too far.  However the Court decides.  They were playing poker and showed their hand, smiling, sure that they hand a winner.  And it was only a pair of eights.

To be clear, I don’t know what will happen.  Will Democrats be able to pass an abortion bill in Congress with enough votes to break the filibuster?  I don't know that, too.  But as a foundational election issue – this has to heavily favor Democrats.  Not just because 80% of all Americans favor some abortion and probably 90+% women do – and support it viscerally – but also, by becoming THE hot-button issue it does indeed let Democrats push it to the top ahead of inflation.  Inflation will eventually come down – and it might even come down by the mid-terms, and most certainly should by 2024.  But taking away abortion from women – that could be here for generations.

I will only add that whoever leaked this first draft did a massive service to the country. Not just because it gave those outraged more time to organize and build up support across party lines -- but it also put the bleak reality of eliminating abortion front and center, however the Supreme Court ultimately decides.

(While the initial presumption is that a liberal law clerk leaked the memo, Yale law professor and former Supreme Court clerk Amy Kapczynski makes a case why she thinks it "MUCH more likely it was leaked by a conservative fanatically committed to every word of Alito’s monstrous opinion" to help lock in the ruling and wording.  If that's the case, I think it still did a service to abortion advocates and as such, while it could have benefits for the far right, it will be affected by the Law of Unintended Consequences.  You can read her full explanation here.)  

And as an added thought, I think this will focus at least some of the country even more than it would have on the House Jan. 6 Select Committee when it holds its public hearings next month.  What previously might have been "white noise" or "just politics" to some people who wouldn't have paid much attention has now taken on more meaning of a fascist attempt to overthrow the government.  And taking away women's rights suddenly has overlapped with that.

I don’t know what will happen, especially in today’s environment where being racist and a liar and xenophobic is not seen by a large part of the country as a negative.  The abortion issue may not help Democrats enough.  But – I don’t think there’s anything about it that helps Republicans.