Courting Disaster

As it happens, earlier in the day yesterday, as whimsy would have it, I posted a note on social media which read --

I had no idea that not only was the case still in the Colorado Supreme Court, but also that the court had announced it would be releasing it ruling in the afternoon.

I would like to think that it was my tweet that might have been the reminder that tipped the scales in their decision…

Quips aside, I have no doubt that that point about the lower court ruling did play a major part in how the Supreme Court decided.  Given that the lower court had ruled that Trump did engage in inciting the Insurrection.  The only difference is that, unlike the district court, the Supreme Court believed that the President of the United States is, in fact, an officer of the government.

Now, to be clear, this isn’t remotely the end of the story.

For starters, the ruling only pertains to the Colorado primary.  And though Trump, as of now, won’t be on the Republican primary, that doesn’t mean he can’t win the primary as a write-in candidate.  And if so, the question would arise if Trump is eligible to be on the general election ballot.  (That said, it would seem a high bar for Trump to get over having lost this case.)

But also, and more importantly, the decision will most surely be appealed and go to the Supreme Court.  Whether they’ll get involved in state politics and a ruling by the state Supreme Court is one question.  And assuming they do take up the case, how this heavily-conservative court will rule is another question.  Though if I was forced to make a bet, it would be for them overturning the ruling.  Not necessarily for legal reasons, though, but because this court is so conservative that polls show it’s significantly lost the trust of the American public.

But if they don’t overturn it, the next question that arises is how this will affect other states where there is a 14th Amendment challenge.

So, there are a whole lot of “if’s.”

Back in November, I wrote the following about a discussion I was having at the time on this very issue, a court deciding the eligibility of Trump to be on the ballot –

I have mixed feelings, too, although I think for slightly different reasons.  In large part that's because I'd like to see an election where Trump is not only beaten but badly beaten, along with the GOP candidates.  (Though the risk, of course, is that that might not happen.)  But that's still a far better way -- should it occur -- to make the point that Trump and the GOP's fascism have been rejected by the American public. 

On the other hand, as for the court challenge -- it is the law.  It's the 14th Amendment.  It's there for a legitimate reason.  Along with other laws prohibiting people to run for president, all of which we accept.  It's against the law to run for president if you're not 35, even if a political party wants you.  It's against the law to run for president if you weren't born in the United States, even if a political party wants you.  And it's against the law to run for president -- and any political office -- if you engaged in Insurrection.  That's a very high bar.  Could it be used against Democrats?  If they were involved in Insurrection, it not only could be used, but it should be.  However, if they weren't involved in an Insurrection, if they were just challenged by a Republican opponent with a claim of the 14th Amendment violation out of spite, it seems profoundly unlikely that they would be blocked from running.  After all, Trump did clearly try to incite Insurrection -- the evidence is not only overflowing, the Colorado court just stated it! -- and the bar is so high he probably won't be prohibited.

Again, I agree that I'd much prefer Trump to be beaten and beaten badly.  And not being permitted to would be awkward and uncomfortable.  But the reason he'd be blocked -- inciting Insurrection -- is itself pretty darn awkward and uncomfortable.

Ultimately, this will go to the Supreme Court.  And I doubt Trump will be blocked.  But if this very conservative Supreme Court does block him from running, I'd say it was because they felt the legal evidence was so massive it couldn't be ignored and was proper.  But I doubt that will happen.​

That’s what I wrote back then.

But now, there’s an actual ruling for the U.S. Supreme Court to decide on.  So…we’ll to wait and see.  But however they rule on the Colorado Supreme Court decision whether Trump is eligible to be on the ballot in the state, one thing holds and should be remembered lest it slip through the cracks --

-- the Colorado District Court ​decision, which remains unchallenged, that Trump DID incite insurrection.