Courting Disaster

The Supreme Court taking up Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, and seemingly on the verge of overturning it would, as most analysis has noted, cause huge, new problems for Democrats in the Midterms.  That said, for many reasons (which I have been planning to address in an upcoming article, though I’ve written about in randoms parts over the past couple months), I still think Democrats will flip the House next year and take control

First things first, though:  if this SCOTUS action does go forward and overturn that critical part of the Voting Rights Act, it would be ghastly, even if Democrats do retain control.  After all, regardless of party control, it would drastically cut minority representation in Congress.  It would return us to the days of blanket racism in the South from the end of the Civil War with Jim Crow laws up until 1965 when the Voting Rights Act was passed – not only with support from both parties, but massive support from both parties.  It passed the Senate by a vote of 77 to 19 (only senators from Southern states voted against it) and passed the House of Representatives 333 to 85.

I do hold out hope that the Supreme Court won't overturn Section 2, or at least won't do so completely -- understanding that there actually is still a real need for it and that it was passed as an overwhelmingly-bipartisan law by Congress and continued to be supported by Congress almost unanimously for 60 years -- and knowing, as well, that not protecting it is a leap much too far and much too blatantly racist, even for right-wing members of the Court.  But it's a thin hope, unexpected, and dancing on a thread of fleece.

And, yes, it also would clearly make taking back the House more challenging for Democrats.  But “more challenging” is very different from being “not possible”, as well as even “not likely".  Since, as I said, I still think they will retake the House.  And therefore, while definitely disturbing and concerning for the Midterms, I don’t think it guarantees the result many are suggesting.

And yes, too, I know I’m not an expert on this, and am just guessing (and hoping), but for a lot of specific reasons – that's for another, more-detailed article on the subject – I think the Blue Wave ahead is more substantive.  But in its much more simple form:

Let’s say overturning the Voting Right Acts does risk flipping 20 Democratic seats to MAGOP.  Plus maybe 5 gerrymandered seats, if other Red states decide to gerrymander, as appears to be the case.  But I think Democrats can pick up 30-40 seats elsewhere, which far-offsets that.  After all, as we’ve seen, Democrats are winning Special Elections by an average of 16 points.  And Trump’s approval among Independents has plummeted.  And the party out of White House historically picks up between 15-30 seats in Midterm elections.  And the tariffs haven’t even kicked in yet, prices are going up, and inflation is rising, polls show people hate the deployment of military in cities and ICE deportations of mothers, children and innocent citizens (all of which will only get worse) and…Trump has dementia, which is degenerative.

This said, I do think overturning the VRA causes problem for the future, since this “16 point gain” we’re seeing for each Special Election race won’t last for subsequent elections.  Although Democratic incumbents could remain strong in 2028, if the party is able to win back the White House.

Also, it’s important to keep in mind that a SCOTUS ruling that throws out the Voting Rights Act (what a horrific phrase to type…) does not impact the Senate races in the Midterm.  And though that’s still an uphill battle for Democrats, I don’t dismiss the possibility.  Especially since we both think that things will get worse for MAGOPs in the coming months.  And polls already show that control of the Senate is much closer today than only 3-4 months ago.

Having said all this – admittedly in the guess and “I hope” category, albeit with reasons (and more reasons to come) – it’s important note that SCOTUS action on gutting the Voting Rights Act is not a stand-alone matter for MAGOP attacks on democracy.  The danger of the Supreme Court overturning the Voting Rights Act and all the other actions the Court and MAGOP have been taking to cut back on voting rights are critical and concerning. 

Fortunately, Democrats are well-aware of all this, and it’s not slipping by unnoticed.  For starters, it will be fascinating to see how the SCOTUS news impacts turnout for this weekend’s No Kings rallies – which already were expected to be massive.

And supporting all this are some very positive, although someone odd reports on polling yesterday.

The first is an article on in Newsweek wrote (admittedly before any SCOTUS action on voting rights, “The president's party has lost House seats in nearly every midterm cycle since World War II, often by huge margins.”

And the second was CNN pollster Harry Enten explaining (hyperbolically – man, does he love performing for the camera, almost dancing around) how Democrats’ odds of taking back the House have (in his screaming words) PLUMMETED.  Except, and very importantly, the “PLUMMET” he’s referring to was from a massive 83% chance of taking back the House down to now “just” 63%.  And yes, that’s a big drop – and yes, it’s before any Supreme Court VRA action -- but that’s still two-to-one odds of taking back the House. 

And more to the point, Enten was comparing it to data from 2017.  And using a “generic ballot.”  And what we’ve seen in real life – with real names on ballots, not generic ones --- is that Democrats have been gaining an average of 16 points in every Special Election!  And Trump’s approval is dropping to around 38%.  And tariffs are only now just kicking in.  And Trump has dementia, which is degenerative.  So, I really don’t know what Harry Enten is talking about and what data he’s using. 

What I do know, though, is that, in the end, whatever data he’s using and whatever the reason the odds have dropped from 83% to 63% -- even with this inexplicable data, “plummeting” to just a 63-37% chance of retaking the House is still 2-to-1.

Yes, that’s before any SCOTUS action.  But it’s also before tariffs kick in, prices rise, more military enters American cities, and Trump’s dementia worsens, which it will because it’s degenerative. 

So, whatever SCOTUS does, retaking the House still very possible, bordering on perhaps likely.  Especially combined with the battleground state polling.  And so, too, is retaking control of the Senate, though less likely.  All for many reasons – upcoming in a future article.

But still, whatever happens, if the Supreme Court does overturn the Voting Rights Act, it’s shameful, repugnant and reprehensible for ignoring the reality of political racism and the harm it would cause to minority rights in America.  And overlaps, too, with the fascist direction of the Trump administration, attacking the "others," all those who are different from them.  Despite all being Americans, all being U.S. citizens.

All the more reason to be angry and (still) very hopeful about the Midterms.