Brother, Can You Spare a Dime?

​On Monday, the Republican Party Senate Campaign cut $10 million from three states.  And even better – much better – is that it’s Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.  As much as the focus of the story is about party facing a challenge in its fundraising, the bigger story is that they clearly see those three critical states as uphill battles at best where the money can be better spent elsewhere – or lost causes at worst.  After all, if they thought they could win those big states, they’d find other places to cut back.

And those are indeed significant states.  Assuming it actually does pan out the money is being pulled, those would be two pick-ups by Democrats, and a major at-risk race for an incumbent Democratic.

The biggest cut -- $5 million – is from the Trump-endorsed Mehmet Oz’s race in Pennsylvania, a seat currently held by a retiring Republican.  Oz has been running a woeful campaign, down by 10-13 points, and his now-infamous crudité video didn’t help.

In Arizona, Senator Mark Kelly has long been seen as one of the most vulnerable Democrats, if not the most.  Arizona is a deeply purple state, which is why the Republican vote is so critical.  But being a deeply purple state, that’s also why Republican Crazy doesn’t work as well with the general electorate.  And the Trump-endorsed Blake Masters is far out of main stream there. 

As for Wisconsin, sitting-Republican Ron Johnson has not needed others’ help turn off the electorate.  He was already among the least-popular senators in their home state.  His recent statements in support of getting rid of Social Security and Medicare – and saying this week that cutting exorbitant drug prices would be “unfair to pharmaceutical companies” aren’t the sort of thing primed to raised one’s low popularity in a state that went Democratic in the last presidential election.  Not by much, but that’s all the more reason why going full radical right seems the very opposite tactic to take.

Now, clearly, cutting back funding in these three states now doesn’t mean the GOP Senate Campaign committee won’t provide money closer to the election.  But that seems most likely if these candidates close the gap and show signs they could win.  And that’s possible – but it’s also harder when your funds have been cut now.  It also doesn’t mean that the three candidates won’t raise needed funds from other sources.  And that’s possible, as well – but it’s also harder when your party has told donors, “We’re putting our money elsewhere.”

And that’s the largest takeaway from what the GOP Senate Campaign committee did – regardless of what they or others might possibly do in the next month or two, they just sent up a bright warning flare that shows their concern.

And if the suspicion behind these Republican cuts hold, and Democrats do win these three races, it will be exceedingly difficult for the GOP to take control of the Senate. 

Suspicions aren’t the vote count.  And much can change in the next 10 weeks – though that change can work in both directions.  But whatever happens, having your campaign funds cut by $10 million dollars is not what any candidate is hoping for.