Blue Moon

There are two things that are pretty easy to see in politics these days.  The first is that Trump’s poll numbers are ghastly.  Overall and even worse on many specific and important issues, like inflation, the economy, Trump's war, affordability and if the country is going in the right direction.  How much of that has made it into Trump’s "consciousness" is difficult to know – after all, to a large degree he’s at the point in his malignant narcissism where he clearly doesn’t believe anything negative about him.  But even that has to annoy him, that so many people are telling what he believes are all these terrible “lies” about him.  Yet it’s not hard to believe that there’s a subconscious part of his physical being that understands the reality of the polls.  But almost more to the point is that all the MAGOPs in Congress do understand reality and do know these polls are real.  And that the gas prices are real.  And that the war is real and not over.  And yet they still stand by this crazy, unpopular malignant narcissist with dementia.  Well…that’s on them.
 
And that’s the second thing.  You can tell how terrified they are – in the news and on an avalanche of repetitive social media posts.  The crazy tweets from the White House are a part of that – most notably the video they released last Saturday of a two-second clip of Trump saying, “Winning…winning…winning” on a loop for literally an hour.  Though there are many others, almost daily.  (Like just yesterday, the AI-generated of Trump looking svelte and fit and 40 years younger in full body armor as if he was a macho warrior.  But perhaps most especially in the mad rush by the Red states to gerrymander their districts just months before an election!!!!  Even worse, Louisiana actually cancelled an election – after it started!!!  I can’t imagine that standing up in court.  But even it does, it shows their utter terror.  Yet, while showing their terror, they are also making a full-on attack against democracy.
 
And this very odd thing, to me.  And I know it’s odd.  Because I'm well-aware that many, if not most Democrats are concerned about the Red states stampede to gerrymander after the Supreme Court ruling.   But I still believe this strongly.  And it’s that oddly, there’s something sort of, kind of, in a way comforting about the MAGOP mad rush to gerrymander.  My thinking takes a bit of explanation of what I mean, but here goes –
 
The ghastly polls are such that I still stand by my prediction from last November of a 30-40 seat pick-up for Democrats, regardless of the Red state gerrymandering.  Special Elections results continue to be overwhelming in Democratic favor.  Democrats have flipped 32 Special Elections to zero Red district flips.  And they’re gaining an average of 16 points over the course of every Special Election since Trump took office.  Even in Red districts (which is the point of gerrymandering, to eliminate Blue seats and create Red ones).  Indeed, Democrats gained 25 points in Trump’s own district -- and flipped the statehouse seat!!!  And perhaps most important of all:  even if the gerrymandering causes these overwhelming results to drop dramatically – say to a pick up of “just” 15-20 seats -- that’s still a blow-out and still gives Democrats control of the House. 

And the results won’t drop that dramatically – not because I don’t think so, but because many Red states have already held their primaries and so only a handful of Red states are even able to gerrymander.  And in those that do, they’ll only pick up one seat, or at most two, since they’ve already so heavily gerrymandered themselves, as much as they could get away with to keep out minorities!  Moreover, a few Blue states, like Illinois – seeing this effort by MAGOP states – have said they’ll look into gerrymandering now, in order to offset Red states.  And most Blue states haven’t “pre-gerrymandered” their districts in the past, so they have the potential to add more.  California, which did already gerrymander to offset Texas, now has the possibility of picking up five additional Blue seats.  So, this fascist effort by MAGOPs to save the House by gerrymandering is meaningless.  And that's if all these gerrymandering efforts are allowed to go forward by the courts following lawsuits, several of which have already been filed.  Furthermore, all this gerrymandering has absolutely zero effect on the Senate or governorship races. 
 
And…this is the additional, notable point:  I think the gerrymandering may well backfire, and MAGOPs have the potential to lose seats by it.  (I’m not predicting that, but I don’t discount it.  And from news coverage I’ve heard, I’m not alone in this.)  And it’s not improbable – it’s happened enough that here’s even a term for it:  dummymandering.
 
The only way too gerrymander is that a state has to take seats from Safe Red districts and move them to Leans Blue or purple districts.  But…remember, Democrats are gaining an average of 16 points.  And that huge number could increase as gas prices rise, Trump’s Iran war goes one, and Trump’s dementia worsens, which it will because dementia is degenerative. And as the unqualified, incompetent White House remains clueless and keeps putting out more counter-productive, lunatic “Winning…winning…winning” videos – further showing that Trump has no one around him whose qualified or competent to help him out of his problems.  They’re only in their jobs to be sycophants and say “Yes” to him.  So, Democrats (who are gaining an average of 16 points) might still hold on to those seats that become gerrymandered by, perhaps, only 5-6 points against them.  And worse for the MAGOP, if they’re gerrymandered by more than that, just to be slightly more protective – not only might Democrats still possibly win those (after all, they’re gaining 16 points on average)…but that means more seats have to have been taken away from once-Safe Red seats, making them just Leans Red by, perhaps 10-12 points.  But…those are no long absolutely “Safe”!  Because – say it all together:  Democrats are picking up an average of 16 points in every Special Election since Trump took office.  To be clear, they very well might stay Red, but it won’t be because they’re “Safe” anymore.  And it is not unreasonably possible that they might lose some of those.  At the very least, the party will have to start dumping money into defending what once were “Safe” seats.  Which takes money away from other races and needs.
 
Now add the factor of motivation.  What we hear from Democrats is that they will crawl on grass to vote in the Mid-Terms.  Most Independents will be motivated to vote (in large part because we see they are breaking 75-25% for Democrats.)  And it’s likely that a fair number of Republicans are not going to vote.  For three reasons, which makes this even more possibly – 1) Because they’ll be depressed by the landscape and stay home, or 2) not vote because they’re huge Trump acolytes only, and Trump isn’t on the ballot, or 3) they won’t vote because it’s the Mid-Terms when turnout is always low – especially if you’re not highly motivated to vote.  If ICE is at polls, it will not keep most people from voting if they’re highly motivated.  The American public is livid.  Polls show that, clearly.  The “Strongly Against” numbers are huge.  And conversely (and problematically for the MAGOP), the “Strongly For” number are less, about two-thirds less.

Which is why I don’t think it’s unreasonable to sort of, kind of take some comfort by the gerrymandering.  Because while MAGOPs “might” gain some seats from it, they won’t win anywhere near enough seats to keep the House, given the rest of the country – along with offsetting gerrymandering in Blue states.  And also, gerrymandering doesn’t impact the Senate, which is an important piece of the effort to control Congress.  And at worst, the mad rush by Red states to gerrymander shows how utterly terrified MAGOPs are.  If you feel confident that you’re going to win, you don’t try to twist the democratic process.  Stopping an election after it’s started???!!!!  Man, how petrified do you have to be to go that far, be that fascist???!

So, as much as I hate seeing this Red state rush to gerrymandering…because it’s an attempt to undermine democracy, and because it’s a racist attack on minority representation in the House…I really think (think, not “know”) it could seriously backfire on the MAGOP.  And I feel confident that Democrats will still take the House, by a comfortable amount.

Whenever I bring up things like this, my friends always say, "I hope you're right."  To which I always respond -- I hope I'm right, too!  But then, as I also say, pretty much every political prediction (that's positive) always ends with..."I hope."  But I can only note that I don't feel confident just because I think so or want to...or hope, but for all those reasons above.