Beyond Lindsey Graham

I take no joy from Lindsey Graham dying.  I was sorry to see the news.  I also shed no weeping tears.  My hope was always that he’d be beaten in his upcoming election.  And it turns out that that was more possible than I thought.  More on this in a moment.

 I wish I could remember the specifics, but at this point, it’s too distant.  But about 15-20 years ago, Lindsey Graham was seen as one of the few “reasonable” Republicans.  Because he was “reasonable” on a few issues that anyone except a far-right ideologue should be “reasonable” about.  Still, even in those days it was a rarity in the pre-MAGOP Republican Party.  And I remember having a conversation with a friend who said how much he liked Lindsey Graham, for being one of the few good guys in the Republican Party.  And I replied – no, not me, I thought he appeared somewhat even-handed on the surface, but not underneath.  Yes, he was “reasonable” on a few issues anyone should be “reasonable” about – and I appreciated that – but I didn’t think a person gets many points on basic reasonableness, even when admittedly it’s rare in your party, especially when it was just an exception for Lindsey Graham, because when on pretty much everything else he opted for being far-right, histrionic, disingenuous and two-faced.  In the years since, after Lindsey Graham called Trump "a kook, a nut-job...a race-baiting, xenophobic, religious bigot” and then became an unrestrained high priest for the kook, nut-job, a race-baiting, xenophobic, religious bigot, smearing his once-close friends, going back on his word and losing most of his remaining decency, I’ve always been glad of that conversation from long ago.  But I’m still sorry for him dying.  I don’t mean that snarkily.  I’m very sorry for the sad news.  I’ll just leave the eulogies for him to the MAGOPs and Trump, at least whatever he decides to muster as sounding like emotion. 

But with Graham’s passing, it does have imminent political ramifications.  And yes, I know he only just passed away yesterday – but those political ramifications are actually imminent.  And I’m sure that behind the scenes the MAGOP is already frantically starting to consider them.  All of them.

That starts with a very surprising poll for the South Carolina Senate race that got released just before Lindsey Graham had passed away.  It showed him with 48% and his opponent Dr. Annie Andrews at 45%, with a margin of error of ±3.7%.  To be fair, it was an internal poll from Andrews’ side, so admittedly it’s not definitive.  But the most notable number was how much she had tightened the race, which last December Public Policy Polling had had her at just 36%.

I didn’t realize the race had become that close.  That said, in Graham’s last Senate race, the polls had Jaime Harrison very close – and Graham ended up winning by 14 points.  So, a close poll with Graham and South Carolina doesn’t inherently mean much.  But – that was a presidential year when Trump was on the ballot of that deeply Red sate.  And this race is a year when Trump’s national approval is just 34%, and Democrats are regularly overperforming.

 What will happen now in South Carolina is interesting.  The MAGOP governor will appoint a replacement, though that would only replace the seat for six months.  The thing is, it’s hard to see the governor fill the seat with the leading MAGOP…since there is no “leading MAGOP” -- and further, anyone in South Carolina who wants the nomination in the General Election will scream bloody murder if a competitor is named by the governor.  Which means it seems most likely that a placeholder will be named.  Which means there won’t be an “incumbent” running for MAGOPs on the November ballot.  But – who knows?  The only thing we do know is South Carolina has already had its primary.  And they will have a special primary to select the party’s nominee.  That will be on August 11.  If no candidate gets at least 50% support, a runoff will be held August 25.

Meanwhile, the General Election is November 3!  And Annie Andrews will keep running through all this.

 Now, South Carolina is, of course, a very Red state.  But that recent poll had the race very tight – against a longtime incumbent.  Annie Andrews has had a long time to build up her public awareness in the state.  And at the moment there’s no MAGOP candidate yet on the horizon. Which is why it’s notable that deep Red South Carolina (bizarrely) may actually be added to the list of states that could, possibly – unexpectedly – be flipped.

And there’s more to this that MAGOPs now have to contend with –

Even if Democrats can’t flip South Carolina – and it’s amazing that it’s an “if” -- MAGOPs will now have to put money in the race.  In deep Red South Carolina!  Money that they were expecting to spend elsewhere.  Like (especially) Maine, to protect the seat of the unpopular Susan Collins.  But the MAGOP can’t afford to lose…South Carolina!

But ramifications go beyond this.

 Lindsey Graham was on the Senate Judiciary Committee, which starts hearings this Wednesday for Todd Blanche to be Attorney General. So, the MAGOP now only has a one-vote margin.  If just a single MAGOP votes 'no', the nomination stalls in committee – and two members of the committee are Thom Tillis and John Cornyn, who Trump helped defeat!  Tillis has said he expects to approve Blanche (though I guess that can change), but Cornyn is on the fence.

Further, MAGOPs are now down two votes in the Senate overall, with Mitch McConnell not there.  So, their margin is 51-47.  That’s not a big deal, since South Carolina’s governor will likely appoint someone soon – but even once that happens, they still can only lose two votes on anything now.  And they have to deal with Tillis, Cornyn and Bill Cassidy, none of whom likely have much love for Trump, after he helped end their Senate careers.  Plus Susan Collins, who now has to be very careful with her voting, as well as the more independent Lisa Murkowski.  So, that’s five votes that are shaky, and they can only lose two.  In fairness, there aren’t likely to be all that many bills to vote on.  But there are a few notable one.  The SAVE Act, of course, and a Defense bill coming up.

It turns out that a great many things could, right now, be finer than to be in Carolina.