As I Recall...

California has an insane law for how to conduct a recall election for governor.  The last time around, it resulted in kicking a governor for a reason that was later to be determined to have been manipulated for corporate profits – and got us the totally inexperienced and incompetent Arnold Schwarzenegger.  Very impressive way to run the largest state in the union, and the eighth biggest economy in the world.

When there is an election, it’s supposed to matter.  You shouldn’t get to recall a governor just because you lost and don’t like it.  But in California, no reason is needed.  So, it’s like giving the other party a free do-over.  (Free to the party – this current recall is costing California taxpayers $276 million!!)  That’s no how elections are supposed to work.  You win, you’re in office for the full term, unless there’s some true, serious, actionable malfeasance.  Not “We lost, wah, wah.”  Or “There’s a pandemic, we don’t like that, get rid of the governor.”)

Further, to qualify for a recall of the governor, one only needs signatures of 12% of the number of people who voted in the last election.  That’s paltry – given how upset the other party is that they last the last election (and especially since we see how easily Republicans get whiney and seditious when losing an election), getting 12% of the last vote total is nothing.  And mind you, the signatures don’t have to be of people who actually voted.  You only need to reach that number.  To put this in further perspective, only 19 states even allow their governor to be recalled.  Most require signatures for 25% people who voted in the last election.  One, as much as 40%.  The number simply has to be higher in California.  And I think as high as is reasonable.  For me, 40% is the minimum. And not 40% of those who voted in the last election, but 40% of all registered voters.  If you can't get 40% of registered voters to simply just sign a petition, costing them nothing more than "Oh, what the hell, sure" -- all of whom are affected by who the governor is, whether or not they even voted in the last election -- for a recall that is going to cost all the people in the state $276 million, whether they voted in the last election or not, then you aren't showing that there's enough a reason to recall the legally and fairly-elected governor.

Another problem.  When a governor is challenged for a recall, it’s likely that The Best candidates of the governor’s party are going to line up to replace him in case he loses.  Rather, the party is going to do its best to unite to support keeping its party’s governor in office. (Whichever party is in office.)  Meanwhile, the opposing part can be more aggressive in putting up candidates, having nothing to lose.

Speaking of which, I think that if the governor is recalled, he should be able to run in the “replacement” election.  People may choose to recall him – but when seeing who the other options are, might feel the now-former governor is far better.  (I sense that’s the case this year, more on that in a bit.  I think that was the case when Gray Davis was recalled in 2003, and instead we got the totally inexperienced actor/former bodybuilder Arnold Schwarzenegger to run the most populous state in the union.)

And the replacement election is so easy, compared to a general election – yet the responsibilities are exactly the same and as serious. You don’t have to do much of anything to run – just pay the filing fee of only $4,000, and you’re set.  In that 2003 recall, there were 135 candidates who filed!  There is no real campaigning required.  At most there are two debates – but with so many people participating (not all 135 the time before, but it was a lot), the stage is just a circus, and few voters watch.  So, basically, you file, send out of mailers, the serious election period is only about a month, and mostly you just hope for the best.  Quite a thin way to select your governor.  This year, at least the number of candidates is “only”46 – perhaps because the law was changed to require released five years of tax returns. 

And also, when you have so many candidates running, and it’s likely that no one is going to get 50% of the vote, and the winner may-well be very low.  So, the law should be changed that if no candidate gets a majority, there for a recall replacement election there must be a run-off between all the candidate who together reach that 50% level.

This is not how elections are supposed to work.  This is not how a recall should work.  This is just fodder for today’s Republican Party which has shown it hates the election process and gives them yet another way to try to undo the public’s voice.  And it would be awful even if a Republican was governor and the process could be just as abused.  It’s just that, not shockingly, Republicans seem to be the party that most chooses to abuse it.

Which brings us to the current recall, to take place in September.

A SurveyUSA poll (which has an A-rating from Nate Silver) says that 51% of likely voters now want to recall Gov. Newsom.

Honestly, I don’t understand this even if the state wasn’t heavily Blue.  But it is heavily Blue.  So, this is just insanity.  I saw another poll last week that was different, though not significantly – it said that 53% of likely voters wanted to retain Gov. Newsom.  But those are cousins, and much too ridiculously close.  Too ridiculously close in a state that is heavily Blue, that is managing during a worldwide pandemic, whose governor has done many very good things during his administration and had some mistakes but overall has done a good to very good job during horrific conditions, with not even a hint of criminal malfeasance, and who only a couple months ago had about a 57% retain level, basically what he was elected with.  And even that is too low.  After all, this isn't an election -- it's "Did the governor do something so horrific he should be recalled from the job he legally holds?"  I hated the job Arnold Schwarzenegger did when in office, I think he mucked up the state – but I didn’t think he should have been recalled because I didn’t vote for him.  I thought he should be voted out of office.

The “OK” news in all this is that Democrat Kevin Paffrath is the leading replacement, in case Gov. Newsom does get recalled, with 27%.  (Wow, what a mandate!  A whopping 27%.)  Deeply conservative radio host Larry Elder has 23%.  The next closest is Republican John Cox (who lost to Newsom) with only 10%.

The “Idiot” news is that Kevin Paffrath is described as "a YouTuber and real estate broker."   Because, yeah, that’s who you want to replace an accomplished governor who last year was considered a potential candidate for president who you’ve recalled during a pandemic, drought and wildfire season.  To run the biggest state in the union, the eighth largest economy in the world.  A YouTuber and real estate broker. 

Dear heavens.  Spare us.

What I do think – and most-especially hope – is that since the state is mailing out ballots to registered voter, that will bring about a far-bigger Democratic vote than the normal “likely voters” would be.  And that should help Newsom since the state is heavily Democratic.

I think that when it comes down to actually voting whether or not to recall Newsom, more people will come out of the woodwork and vote to retain him.  But that’s just a guess, based on wishful thinking and a trust in a semblance of sanity.  Also, it’s based on me being very surprised to discover a while back when I checked that more people voted in the last 2003 recall than had voted in the general election.  Which suggests that turnout will be good – especially since they now will mail out ballots – which should benefit Democrats and Newsom.

But even if that does bode well for Newsom, and even if he wins more comfortable than current polls show, he’s still in some semblance of “trouble” – because it shouldn’t be even remotely close.  This is a recall.  In a Blue state.  During a pandemic.  And which only exists because Republicans, once again, want to subvert the election process because they lost.

 But beyond the Newsom vote, and as glad as I am that a Democrat is leading the replacement vote, how on earth do you chose “Kevin Paffrath – YouTuber and real estate broker” -- to be your choice as governor to replace him??  My only guess is that there are so many Republicans they cancel each other out (though Larry Elder is close), and among the few Democrats running, he’s the one who seems the most semi-normal.

But this is all insane.  On every level that Californians have in them to be insane when they really want to be.  Including that it’s costing $276 million.  It doesn’t seep out all the time – but man, when it does, it’s soul-crushing nuts.

All because Republicans lost an election and are so fascist that they can’t accept it.

Gee, go figure.