And I Am Telling You, I'm Not Going...
There have been a growing number of analysts the past couple of weeks pondering on whether Trump will drop out of the presidential race. Joe Scarborough did at length the other day on his MSNBC show. Even "Fox News" brought up the subject, and given that they're basically a pipeline from the RNC, that got a lot of attention.
I have a friend who has been suggesting this for actually much longer. And he's quite insistent on his belief that he will happen.
I know all the arguments for it. I’m still happy to make a bet that it won’t happen.
Indeed, as insistent as my friend is, he's not actually willing to make the bet. And as much time as Joe Scarborough spent on the subject, he qualified his observations by saying he didn't think it would happen. Just that it might. Well, yeah, sure, of course he "might." He might declare himself king. But when you add that you don't think it will happen, it does sort of undercut your position...
As much as I understand the arguments for it -- and yes, it's true, he might -- I also understand the reasons why I don't believe he will. And of all those reasons, three for me stand out.
The first is that Trump seems to live in a fantasy world where he's the best at everything, "one of most perfect people in the world," someone who knows more than the generals, a very stable genius. He doesn't like people who get caught. He's a winner, at everything. I don’t think Trump sees himself as losing the race, not nearly as much as the experts do. And even if he sees the possibility -- after all, he's had six bankruptcies – he still always comes out on top. And the thing is, even if reality rears its head and he does actually lose, we can feel pretty sure that he will claim he didn’t lose, that it was rigged. If he drops out, people will know it's from fear of losing, even if they come up with any reason, most likely health. Bullies do back down when confronted -- we've seen that with Trump several times in his administration -- but bullies also like to double down (which we've seen, as well) and don't like to be seen as cowards.
Second, I think Trump has a fear of being sued and potentially even going to jail. He know he risks all that if he’s out of office, And if he can stay in office another four years, the statute of limitation runs out on many possible lawsuits. In office, he can control the game.
But perhaps the main argument against Trump dropping is one that I haven’t heard anyone else address who suggested Trump could drop out. And that's the question -- who will replace him on the ticket, and how will the Republican Party go about deciding on that person??!
The GOP is not just going to “give” away the job to anyone. So, people will compete for it. But they can’t run in primaries – the convention is only a couple months away. And will there really be an actual convention where people can meet and discuss the new candidate? And even if there is, what person do you go for?
Mike Pence? He’s as tarnished as Trump -- he even heads the coronavirus task force, for goodness sake, in charge of this disaster -- so, the party doesn't gain much by switching from Trump to him. Someone else just as supportive of Trump as Pence but isn't Pence? The problem there is that if they're just as supportive they’ll have to run on all his same issues his base loves and demands -- white supremacist race-based, children in cages, building the wall, anti-women, drop out of NATO, leave the Paris Accord, use the U.S. military to attack protesters -- and be just as tarnished for it.
So, do they go for someone not tarnished by Trump? But who in the GOP would that even be? And it would infuriate the base. In fact, anyone not Trump risks infuriating the base. And what decent person would even want the job – starting from far behind, no campaign presence, trying to catch up in the middle of a pandemic that your party has worsened, with a collapsing economy, 47 million Americans having filed for unemployment because your party helped put them out of work, with national social unrest that your party has exacerbated?? And you’ve had no time to develop a platform to address all this. It’s hard to imagine that anyone with serious hopes of becoming president would ever want to be a sacrificial lamb and ruin their future hopes. So, that leaves some comparative non-entity who would likely stand even less chance than Trump. Even if they had a national profile -- a huge "if" -- they'd be seen as a sort of non-entity last minute throw-in scrub.
When George McGovern had to replace the Vice Presidential nominee on his ticket in 1972, that crushed his chances which weren't strong to begin with. Now, imagine replacing the Presidential nominee. Especially when that nominee is actually the president. You'd look like the party with the wheels falling off at a time when a poll came out yesterday that said 75% of the public thinks the country is going in the wrong direction..
So, how does such a low option help the Republican Party over having Trump? As deeply problematic as he is, which is why the topic has even come up, he at least carries the imprimatur of actually being the sitting president, commander-in-chief of the armed forces, the chief executive. And has a loyal base who will go out and vote for him even during a pandemic.
And again, importantly, how do you even decide on that person? It certainly seems that Pence would be the logical fallback -- even if swapping Trump for Pence is just getting Trump Lite and isn't really isn’t much of a swap. It isn't just that Pence carries almost all the baggage Trump has -- but it's that very baggage which is the whole reason people think Trump should drop out). Pence is certainly more sane and polished than Trump (a low bar, to be sure), but he doesn’t bring the intense loyalty from the base that Trump does. And as I noted, he’s officially the person in charge of the pandemic task force. So, again, there’s very little for the GOP to gain by swapping Trump for Pence. And he's the most logical choice!
But even at that, even if he actually was willing to take the job...the Republican Party can't just anoint him if someone else sees the opportunity they never expected to become President of the United States, no matter how slim the chances. And I'm sure there would be other people willing to run.
One other question -- who would even tell Trump to drop out??! They apparently can't even find someone willing to tell him that Russia put a bounty on American soldiers and killed some.
I can think of only one possible reason why Trump might conceivably quit. Because they can guarantee Trump that a newly-inaugurated President Mike Pence will grant him a full pardon for all crimes he has committed or may commit. But if he stays in the race and Joe Biden wins, that pardon option is gone. The problem with that is presidential pardons only cover federal crimes, and we know that the State of New York (at the very least) is already investigating state crimes. And civil lawsuits will likely come out of the floor boards. So, a presidential pardon has its limits.
Yes, people will call for Trump to drop out. I think that’s mostly wishful thinking on their part, either because they hate him so much or because they’re coming to grips with how disastrous Trump is for their party after 3-1/2 years enabling him. And while we can all postulate endlessly why he may drop out – and yes, he may drop out -- as I said, I’m happy to make a bet that he won’t. I could be wrong. He absolutely may drop out. But I’m willing to bet that he won’t. And so far the takers have been non-existent.
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