Advice in the Nikki of Time

With all the understandable focus on the Republican primary in Colorado, with ineligible to run there at the moment, I'm going to move to another GOP primary, this one in Nevada.  But it's not really about Trump.  Instead, I'm going to offer some really good advice to Nikki Haley, something I would generally not consider doing.  But 'tis the season and all that...

The Nevada Republican Party has decided to be very weird for this coming election.  They're holding their presidential primary on February 6.  And no, that's not weird, but what is weird is that they're also holding a presidential caucus on February 8!

And further, it's the caucus that actually counts.  The primary is just...oh, who knows?

And making it weirder is that, from what I've read, the caucus is weighted heavily towards Trump, which is annoyed the other candidates, but the Trump campaign team got involved early with the primaries and caucuses and manipulated things, not shockingly, to help them.  The most notable way is ensuring that more results than usual would be winner-take-all.

But making it even weirder is that, for reasons I don't know, Trump is not on the ballot for the primary, which (not delivering any delegates) is really just window dressing.  But weirder still...no other candidates are on the primary ballot -- except Nikki Haley!  So, it seems pretty clear that she'll be the winning candidate.

But --

Hey, I did say Nevada was weird.  So, yes, of course, there's more. 

Before we'll get to that, I'll just add here that if I was an official advisor to Nikki Haley, rather than just advising her so thoughtfully here, it would be -- "Nikki, please, drop out of the Nevada primary!!  Really, honest.  Drop out now before it's too late!!!!"

That's because there will be one other option on the Nevada primary ballot.  Voters can choose "None of the above."

The Nevada primary -- as opposed to the Trump-weighted caucus -- is meaningless.  There's nothing to gain from it.  And only a downside.

Now, I have to suspect that Nikki Haley believes there is an upside to winning the Nevada primary.  It'll show that she got the most candidate votes and won a primary.  And she can then go around promoting that she actually won a primary!

Except -- she will have won a primary with no other candidate on the ballot.  So, how much value do you get from that, more than close to zero.  And assuming that Trump and the other candidates point out that she won with no other candidates on the ballot, which they will point out, and also make the case that "The only way Nikki Haley can win a primary is if she's not running against any other candidate," the value then will not only be zero, it risks being a negative.

But it's worse.  Because what if she loses with no other candidates on the ballot?!  What if "None of the above wins"?  And I would suggest that there is a very good possibility that "None of the above" could win.  Because every Trump supporter can vote in the primary -- and every supporter for all the other candidates can vote in the primary, too, of course.  And I wouldn't be surprised if Trump's campaign especially, but all the other campaigns are telling their supporters to vote for "None of the above."

If that happens, Nikki Haley would not only lose to no one, but she could get swamped.

And so there's virtually no upside to her winning with no other opponents, and a massive downside to losing to no other candidates.

Now, mind you, she's not getting the GOP nomination as long as Trump is a candidate.  But if for whatever reason he isn't eligible, Haley losing to no one candidates risks crushing her hopes of convincing the party that she should be their alternate choice.

Winning a primary against no one doesn't see worth that risk.

So, my gracious, in the spirit of the holidays my advice to Nikki Haley is -- Drop Out of the Nevada Primary NOWWWWWW!!!  Do everything you can to have your name removed from the ballot Right Now!!!!!

Mind you, there are two big hurdles for her here.

The first issue is that it might be too late at this point to withdraw her name from the primary ballot.

The second is that I don't think she'll take the advice.  But I'm okay with that.