A Positive Negative

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A few weeks ago, I mentioned a Special Election for a state race in Red Iowa that was held just two weeks after Trump was inaugurated.  It took place in a very Red district that Trump had won by 20 points – but the Democrat flipped the seat and won by four points.
 
On Tuesday night, Iowa had another Special Election for the state House, in District 100, and this time MAGOP Blaine Watkin won, defeating Democrat Nanette Griffin by 51.5-48.2%.  It’s a shame that Democrats lost, which allowed MAGOPs to hold a super-majority (which shows how Red the state is).  However, something nagged at me about the results that I thought might have been left out of the reporting, so I did some researched and checked it out.

And yes, my suspicions of something missing were correct. 
 
What is not mentioned in the story is that last year in the 2024 General Election, not only did the MAGOP candidate Martin Graber win in the same deeply Red “District 100” by a massive 67-32%...although, sorry, I can't tell you the name of the Democrat.  But that's because (are you ready?) -- the district was so Red that no Democrat even ran!!

What this means, of course, is that only seven weeks into the Trump administration, conditions had plummeted so badly that Democrats decided to actually run a candidate in a deeply Red district -- and picked up 31 points.  And almost won by just three points!

This hasn’t gotten reported, but it strikes me as a huge deal.  And not just for this race alone --

This is now two races in a row in Red Iowa and very Red districts where Democrats have picked up over 24 points in each of them.  After just seven weeks since Trump took office – which is a president’s normal “honeymoon period.”

And it's all the more notable since there are three Special Elections for the House coming up in just over two weeks, on April 3.  All three are for MAGOP seats and in Red districts (two in Florida, one in New York), so it's not likely they'll be flipped.  But if all three are, then Democrats regain control of the House, and Hakeem Jeffries will become Speaker.  Unlikely as it is, though, results like these in Red Iowa make it interesting to watch.  And even if any seats flip, it makes the razor-thin MAGOP majority even tighter.