57-43

On Saturday, former U.S. Attorney Glenn Kirschner -- a bright, insightful analyst who often appears on MSNBC -- posted a tweet that read, "43 Republicans just announced, in no uncertain terms, that what Donald Trump did on January 6 - launching a violent attack on the US Capitol to stop our democratic process - may properly be done again in the future by any other politician, including Donald Trump himself."

I think that what Kirschner wrote spoke loudly for many people.  And as extremely smart and thoughtful as he is, I don't fully agree with his assessment.  Mind you, I completely understand it.  And there is a large part of me that agrees with it.  And I fully understand the anger that probably most non-Trump acolytes feet, because I feel it, as well.  But I think it's a view of the vote itself -- and a correct view -- but not of the larger reality around it.

I think a step back is in order.  And I would suggest that any future politician who thinks that this Senate vote gives them carte blanche to do it again, to launch a violent attack on the U.S. Capitol to stop our democratic process might want to factor in some realities before thinking there are no consequences to having free reign over the country.

After all -- Trump did get impeached by the House of Representatives.  And 57 senators did vote to convict him.  Further, seven Republicans crossed-over party lines to vote to convict.  And perhaps most of all, this future politician had better know for absolute certain that he has a cult of personality blindly beholden and supplicant to him in the Senate who ignore their oaths of office and will support him in his efforts to destroy democracy.  That's just not your standard U.S. Senate.  Not that such a sycophantic party couldn't happen again -- it could.  But if a future politician is going to try to overthrow the government, he'd better understand that usually U.S. senators are very arrogant about their great power and take massive offense when a president in another branch of government tries to encroach on them.  This was a perfect storm of demagogue meeting terrified cult lackeys.

It should also be noted that this would-be tyrant also lost the general election by seven million votes.  And an Electoral College result of 306-232. 

So, this was hardly a standard election with a buffet table laid out for every future politician to waltz in to.

Furthermore, none of this takes into consideration what is likely to come next, which is nothing even close to a clear-sailing landscape.

Right now, Trump is "Individual 1," an unnamed co-conspirator with Michael Cohen who was convicted in federal court.  And now that he is a private citizen, than indictment could be re-opened.  And the New York State Attorney General is investigating him.  And the Manhattan District Attorney is investigating him.  And the Fulton County (GA) District Attorney is investigating him.  And it's possible that the U.S. Attorney General will investigate him for his part in the insurrection.  And it almost certain that there will be countless personal lawsuits filed against him -- for his part in the insurrection, as well as any number of crimes he likely has committed against them over the past decade.

And none of this takes into consideration the difficult he will face getting good attorneys to represent him in all these cases.  Consider that in the Senate Impeachment Trial -- perhaps the Holy Grail for any defense attorney to work on behalf of the United States President -- Trump was only able to find a vaudeville act that was so terrible that they not only helped highlight how guilty he was of inciting insurrection, but probably came close to losing a case that, given that the jury was stacked, was near-unlosable.  Now, imagine Trump trying to find topnotch attorneys -- or even good attorneys -- to defend him as a private citizen, knowing that he has been branded across the country as an insurrectionist (for goodness sake, not only only did the Senate vote 57-43 that he was guilty, but even Mitch McConnell said as much even after voting to acquit him on a questionable "technicality").  And knowing, too, that he has a long reputation of not paying.  Then, add in the reality that no jury will be made up of politicians who are frightened toadies.  In fact, none will likely even have a single cultist on them, since they won't make it past the jury selection process.  It will be 12 people listening to the facts.  And facts have always been Trump's worst enemy.

Even more troubling for Trump is that his reputation of not paying will not be helped by yet another disastrous consideration of what Trump will have to face.  By all reports, Trump has between $400 million to $800 million of debts coming due in the next few years.  In addition, it seems likely that he's going to have an incredibly difficult time finding any banks that will lend money to you -- both because of the precariousness of his financial situation but also, now, because of him being associated with inciting insurrection.  That just doesn't look good in a bank's official brochure in the section on Stability and Trust.  He may not have been convicted in the Senate because of scared and groveling Republican lackeys, but the trial did him major damage.  And Trump's longtime lender, Deutsche Bank, has already said they're cutting ties with him.  So, Trump appears to have significant financial problems on the horizon.

Yes, it was a terribly disappointing result to the Senate trial.  But it was not unexpected. And that leads to one other impactful result that must be taken into consideration.  Republican senators not voting Trump guilty kept him from being impeached -- but he was seen as guilty to the American public, in visceral, stomach-churning video.  And those Republican senators will have to face those consequences in the 2022 mid-term elections when 22 GOP senators are up for re-election, as opposed to only 12 Democrats.  It's possible that the Republican Party will do well in the mid-terms -- the party not in the White House traditionally does -- but it seems more probably right now, I think, that they will be beaten badly.  In part because the pandemic should be over and businesses and schools should be open -- but in part because they are the party of enabling insurrection and acquitting Trump   Indeed, be prepared to see Democratic political ads across the country using video of Mitch McConnell saying that Trump was "practically and morally responsible" for inciting insurrection -- followed by a reminder that the Republican Party led by McConnell voted to acquit him.  And on the reasonable thought that Republicans do lose badly in 2022, that will make any senator of either party very wary of supporting a "future politician" who thinks he has a clear path to inciting insurrection himself without a care in the world.

It is nothing to take lightly.  It was horrific that Trump was acquitted.  It sends a terrible message to the country and the world.  There must be intense vigilance.  But -- this was no vindication of Trump.  He and the Republican Party have a very difficult road ahead because of the Senate trial.

Trump was acquitted.  But it can't be forgotten that he was voted guilty by 57-43.  With seven Republican senators crossing party lines to vote guilty -- which is seven more senators to cross party lines than in every presidential impeachment trial put together in the history of the United States before Trump.

I understand the angst so many feel because Trump was acquitted.  It's justified, and I feel it, too.  But Trump did not get away with no consequences.  And no future politician can take that as a lesson, because if they do, it's at their own peril.  Life is more than "a vote."  The world around Trump is collapsing.  And it may well collapse around the Republican Party, as well.

​Trump was acquitted.  But being voted guilty 57-43 is truly awful.  And that's only the starting point.