Voting for Dummies

I first wrote about "dummymandering" over a year ago here, in July, 2025. That's where a state gerrymanders but it backfires and they actually lose seats. This tends to come about because, in order to gerrymander, you have to take away voters from what you believe are "safe" districts so that you can build an advantage in districts you'd otherwise lose. But it turns out that those "safe" districts weren't as safe as you thought, or you didn't move enough voters into the weaker districts.

At the time, I thought that some of the gerrymandering in Texas risked the possibility of dummymandering (and subsequently, as did other Red states that later gerrymandered). My sense -- rightly or wrongly, we'll find out -- is that Democrats were winning every Special Election by an average of 16 points. So, if you take a safe "plus 20 points" district and moved five points into a "minus 2" district -- making them "plus 15" and "plus 3" -- that sounds good on paper, but not only risks losing one, but both.

I continue to hold to this from my totally non-professional sense of observation, based on a topic I've been writing for a while -- the enthusiasm factor, where polls are showing that Democrats are far more enthusiastic about voting than MAGOPs. And those are the people you can guarantee will crawl over glass to vote (especially in a Mid-Term), while unenthusiastic supporters risk not voting at all. Happily, just yesterday morning, the excellent New York Times political reporter Susan Glasser said on MS NOW, “I think that ‘enthusiasm” is the big story this election.”  So, huzzah!!!!

Add to all this a factor that exists in every Red state that gerrymandered, but most especially Texas. "Most especially Texas" because not only do they have a particularly large Latino population... but they specifically did their gerrymandering based on the 2024 election when the MAGOP had strong Latino support. And were counting on that to continue.

I believe the official term that political scientists use is "Oooops!!"

Latino support has cratered in Texas, thanks to Trump and MAGOP-enabled support for policies pushing ICE to go after Latinos -- and after anyone who looks or just sounds Latino -- arrest them, hold them in detention centers, and deport them. Whether or not they turn out to be U.S. citizens or have impeccable records in the United States, going through the proper process applying for citizenship or just staying out of trouble with no arrests, the direct opposite of "the worst of the worst," building good lives in the country, raising children born here. And ending up being terrorized by immigration officials. And some even being killed.

So, yes, the bottom has fallen out of Latino support for Trump and the MAGOP. I've seen this in polls and first-hand reports from friends who live in Texas. "You can't believe how much Latinos hate Trump here, especially the young kids, especially those registered to vote for the first time who can't wait to vote" is what I hear from them all.

A bigger problem for MAGOPs is that many older Latinos may be scared to go vote, not knowing if they'll be harassed by ICE at the polls, even though they're legal citizens, and are the people most likely to stay at home. And this is most surely what Trump and MAGOPs are hoping for. But the problem for the MAGOP is that those are the very Latinos who most-voted for Trump in 2024. And any who are willing to brave the risks and vote their outrage...are Democrats. Or are anxious this time to vote Democratic.

An article in Raw Story about Texas reinforced all this. Titled, "'Buyer's remorse': Trump voters apologize for electing him as GOP gerrymander backfires".

The very first sentence in the piece spoke volumes -- "GOP gerrymandering in Texas is predicted to backfire as Democrats seize the opportunity to claim a regretful bloc of key President Donald Trump voters, according to a new report."

A few salient quotes leap out:

"I don't think Latino voters that voted in 2024 will stick around," Massey Villarreal, a Houston-based businessman who used to chair the Republican National Hispanic Assembly, told Politico. "[Trump] is targeting the Latino community. He's separating families. He's breaking businesses."

Ronnie Cavazos, president of the South Texas Builders Association, apologized for supporting Trump after the immigration crackdown. "Let's be real. We voted for this. I'll take the blame."

And then there's this, very importantly, from Monica De La Cruz,, who admitted for the record that Latinos are turning against Trump's immigration crackdown. Why "very importantly"? Because Ms. De La Cruz is a MAGOP member of Congress running for re-election! "Whether I'm at church, at the grocery store," she said, "while I'm in activities with my children, I'm hearing those same concerns — that people are feeling frightened in the community."

That's sure not the community of voters you were really counting on big-time when you gerrymandered your state.

There are 12.6 Latinos and Hispanics who live in Texas, with a population of 31.7 million. For those without an abacus, that's 40% of the state. As political scientists put it, "Oooops!"

Last Week Tonight Last Night

If you didn't see Last Week Tonight with John Oliver last night, his Main Story was on the growing push by the religious right for Fetal Personhood. It was a wide-ranging report, making it difficult to briefly summarize, but I'll just say it didn't just deal with the moral and legal issues that the far right is pushing the edges of, but also the abuses that have occurred. It's a very interesting report, and his team, of course, is able to add a great deal of humor.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sCSt45rev7w

Chump Change

In some ways this is a follow-up of sorts to my article here last week about press analysts not getting that the constituents of each state are different, even when they’re neighbors.  This is another thing I scratch my head over when I hear it analyzed on the news.

In fairness, it’s usually said by Republican analysts, though not exclusively.  Though in equal fairness, that’s because they are asked about the issue more.  It’s when the topic comes up about how Trump and his party should campaign with his approval hovering around 32%.  And with the economy terrible for most people, with affordability being the number one issue.  And support of Trump’s Iran War of choice so massively unpopular.  And high gas prices.  And trusting MAGOPs’ handling of the economy now below trusting Democrats more.  What should Trump and his party do to turn that around?  (“Punt” or “Wave the white flag and beg for mercy” are not options.)

What analysts tend to say that that what Trump and MAGOPs have to do to pivot and change the narrative for the party. 

It’s at that point I laugh, and want to shout back at them through the TV screen – “Trump is not going to pivot!  That’s not who Trump is.  Have you not figured that out yet, after 10 years since he was elected in his first term??”   But it’s more than that.

First of all, Trump doesn’t apologize.  He doubles down.  He never thinks he’s wrong.  He never thinks he makes mistakes.  He sells merchandize that says, “Trump has been right about everything.”  He can’t be wrong, he can’t make mistakes, he can’t lose.  Being wrong makes you a loser, and being a loser is the worst thing in the world to Trump.  Just last week, he was asked about the growing disaster of sailors on the U.S.S. Lincoln living under terrible conditions, writing home about how distraught they are, some men attempting suicide.  And when asked about it, he actually said that the families are lying about it.  And when asked if the ship has been deployed for too long, he not only answered “No, but then added, “Not long enough.”  This is not someone who admits mistakes and pivots.

Secondly, he has dementia.  And one of the core symptoms of dementia is a lack of awareness of the real world, and repeating the same thing you focus on, over and over and over.  Indeed, it’s the very opposite of pivoting.  It’s the obsession to double down -- and triple down, and keep on.  Furthermore, dementia is degenerative.  He is not going to get better.  He’s not going to change direction.  As psychologist Dr. John Gartner of Johns Hopkins has said, “Take a look at Trump now, because it’s the best you will ever see him.”  Trump is deeply focused, intensely dug in, relentlessly repetitive.  It’s basically all he can do.  He’s still trying to prosecute losing the 2020 election.  Still wants to take over Greenland.  Still keeps raising tariffs.  Still claiming his Reflecting Pool was vandalized.  Trump is not going to change course.  Not going to pivot.  Not going to say he is wrong about anything.  Not, not, not, not, not. 

And third, Trump has a 32% approval.  The public has figured out who he is.  It’s baked in.  This, right now, is what people will be voting on.  If somehow a bulldozer came in and was able to uproot Trump and his MAGOP enablers in Congress from their long-entrenched positions and somehow “pivot” them however much as possible just 78 days before the Mid-Term Election – in fact only around 56 days before earlier voting starts in most states (and even a mere 37 days in some!) – the public has decided who Trump is, after watching him closely in politics for the past 10 years.  They’ve heard the same stories, the same complaints, the same policies, the same racism, the same hatred, the same “in two weeks,” all of it.  They get it.  It’s why he only has a 32% approval, less than two years after voting to elect him. Americans know who Trump is by now.  And two-thirds of them don’t approve. 

So, right now, if Trump and his party are trying to figure out what to do, saying to “pivot” and change course is a great idea a year ago, but right now, weeks away, they’re headed for the giant iceberg, and it’s too late to turn the Titanic away from crashing into to it.  Hoping for the best that Trump will pivot and all will be well is a fool’s paradise.  Trump is not going to change and make things better.  He’s on a path to making things worse.  The best thing for the MAGOP may be to acknowledge to themselves who they are, understand what they’ve long-established themselves to be, and try desperately to explain to Americans why it’s all great – as they get the lifeboats ready.  The problem, of course, is that the public is showing they hate it.  And can see the iceberg.  But maybe it will staunch the bleeding and limit the losses.

This is known as the "Hope for the best" strategy.

The risk, of course, is that it will infuriate people so much it will make things worse.  But at this point, Trump and MAGOPs are past the line of worrying about the risk.  They crossed into the disaster zone many months ago.  By their own choice.  And kept doubling down.  Following the leader.

But then, as Trump said this past March at the Future Investment Initiative event in Miami --

"I hang out with losers because it makes me feel better. I hate guys that are very, very successful and you have to listen to their success stories. I like people that like to listen to my success."

Oh, yeah, this really is a guy who's going to pivot and change. Though having a 32% approval might just be part of the plan for hanging out with losers.

Though in the end, the late Lindsey Graham is the one who got it right in 2016 during the primaries of the then-Republican Party before it went full MAGOP --

“If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed -- and we will deserve it.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rt1cA0jqamk