The "Be Careful What You Wish For" Department

According to the schedule, the House should be voting this evening on impeaching Trump.  It will pass, the only question is how much of the Democrats in battleground districts will put their careers on the line and vote for it.  Thus far, as I write this, we know of two who said they will, and one -- who will be switching parties and become a Republican -- who said he won't.

As much as that's the focus of the media, I don't think that they're looking at it correctly and that those are the only representatives who should be looked at.  That's because these Democrats are not the only congressmen in battleground districts.  There are Republicans, as well.  And their careers are every bit as at risk, just from the opposite perspective -- if they vote not to impeach Trump.  Given that polls show 64% of Republicans think that the Senate should call witnesses and not whitewash the trial, that suggests that a Republican in the House who represents a toss-up districts and thinks he or she is safe by voting for Trump is fooling themselves.

Speaking of which, I don't think Republicans should inherently think that not calling witnesses in the Senate trial and making it all a whitewash cover-up should think that the American public will be satisfied by that, just because Trump is not convicted.  For starters, history shows that it's the cover-up that often causes people far more trouble than "getting away with" the crime.  Further, around half the country (give or take) believes Trump should be impeached and convicted -- that's not a populace that will settle for a whitewash.  But also there's that poll mentioned above about the public wanting witnesses to be called.  Not only (according to a Washington Post-AP poll) do 64% of Republicans want the Senate to call witnesses -- which Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has said he has no plans to do -- but 71% of the country wants witnesses to be called.

Not calling witnesses will not go down well in the country where 71% say they want witnesses called.  Holding a trial where many Republicans have publicly said they're not going to pay attention to the evidence will not go down well in that same country, where 71% want witnesses called.  Having a Republican Majority Leader saying that he's managing the trial with the person on trial will not go down well in a country that says it wants a trial with evidence presented.

It is of course likely that Trump will not be convicted.  It is not certain that every vote will go McConnell's way, with perhaps enough Republican senators in at-risk states voting on some rules that provide some fairness, including the calling of witnesses.  But baring some additional stunning revelation, Trump will not be convicted.  And this is at the very top of the GOP Wish List.

However, there are two critically important additions.  And they both fall under the "Be Careful What You Wish For" banner.

The first is that voters in November will be outraged by a trial covered-up by Republicans and make their votes heard.  You don't need a lot of voters in the middle to act that way.  A shift of three percent turns a razor thin 51-49 election into a 54-46 landslide.  And, again, as a starting point, 71% of all Americans want witnesses to be called.  And polls show that most Americans -- by huge amounts, often up to 16 points -- say that Trump acted improperly.  Not convicting him in the Republican Senate does not mean the American public feels the same.  Because it doesn't.

And the second is that, contrary to the belief of many, the impeachment trial does not end the investigations.  It's ongoing.  The House committees are still investigating Ukraine and other Trump actions, and Supreme Court decisions are pending, including access to Trump's tax returns.  And the U.S. Attorney's office in the Southern District of New York is still investigating Trump.  As is the State of New York.

The Senate trail is not even close to the end of the investigation process.  We're somewhere in the middle.