Giving It Your Worst Shot

Several weeks back, the Washington Post had an article titled, “Covid deaths no longer overwhelmingly among unvaccinated as toll on elderly grows.”  It certainly was an attention-getting thing to see and somewhat concerning.  I had made notes to write about it, though as has been happening a lot lately, other stories took precedence.  However, yesterday it got mentioned on MSNBC so I figured it was a good time to revisit it.
 
For those who want to read along, you can find the full article here.
 
Needless-to-say, it was surprising news.  However, if one reads it closely, the story is different than the headline.  Not that the headline itself was inaccurate to what the story is reporting – it’s not.  It’s just that a headline doesn’t allow for the details of a full article to put perspective on the facts.  For me, the most-telling passage in the article was “The bulk of vaccinated deaths are among people who did not get a booster shot, according to state data provided to The Post.”
 
“Did not get a booster shot.”  Let alone the second booster shot.  But not even one!
 
A story to put this in context --
 
About a month ago, I was invited to a party at someone’s home, and one of the people hadn’t gotten a booster, only the initial J&J vaccination.  I did some research and a little “back-dating” and determined – this person likely got his shot around when it was first available.  That was 13 months ago.  The efficacy of the J&J vaccine after 6-8 months went down to just 13%.  And as I said, he didn’t get a booster.  So, now, to bring us up to today, add 5-7 more months since its efficacy plummeted to 13%, and that means the guy was essentially unvaccinated.  Even though he could tell himself – and tell others (and tell researchers if asked) – that, oh, yes, he most definitely was vaccinated.  And he was – but that’s like getting the flu shot in 2020 and telling people (and telling yourself) that all’s well, you’re covered, you didn’t need a flu shot in 2021 because you’d been vaccinated.  Never mind that it was out of date with no protection.  Yes, he had had the J&J vaccine – but for all intents and purposes, he was unvaccinated.
 
That’s pretty much what this data is saying, too.  Yes, these people who died were “vaccinated.”  But the vaccine’s protection had worn out – and it wasn’t that they hadn’t gotten the second booster, they hadn’t even gotten the first booster!!  So, they were basically unvaccinated -- even though officially they’d been vaccinated and could say they’d been vaccinated, and research data would show they were vaccinated.  Add to this that they were elderly and perhaps immunocompromised.   So, the results are not terribly surprising:  if you didn’t get the shot and are unvaccinated, or if you did get the shot but its efficacy wore off long ago and you didn’t get even one booster, you’re just as unvaccinated -- and both offer absolutely no protection.
 
And as one read the article, there was other data that supported how most of the deaths were for people unvaccinated, and that those who’d had the booster had significantly lower death rates.  Now, if you add the second booster to that, they are even more protected.
 
In fact, not only did the article say this – but they highlighted it with a separate boldfaced heading -- 
 
"Unvaccinated still die at a much higher rate"
 
“The share of deaths among vaccinated people has risen, but the rate of death is still many times higher among unvaccinated people. In January and February, unvaccinated people died at about seven times the rate of the fully vaccinated and 20 times the rate of people with boosters, according to a study of deaths among the vaccinated from 23 state and county health departments.”
 
So, it says very clearly that people who are unvaccinated not only die at a rate seven times those who have had the initial two doses (or one for J&J), they are dying at 20 times the rate of people with just one booster.   The study wouldn’t have data yet for people with two boosters.  So, that “20 times the rate” figure is only a minimum figure – yet the protection compared to someone unvaccinated is overwhelmingly higher.
 
I have a thought with further impacts the data. 
 
I suspect a major factor in all this, too, is that people who got the initial two-dose shot and believe they are now “vaccinated” think that they have remained “vaccinated” and are, if not completely protected, substantively vaccinated.  Never mind that the vaccine’s efficacy actually wore off long ago and they didn’t bother to get a booster – since why should they?  They’ve been “vaccinated.”  Further, feeling that they were vaccinated and protected, many such people probably felt they could take more risks than before.  Traveled more.  Got together with big groups indoors more.  Didn’t wear a mask.  Didn’t try to socially distance.  Maybe didn’t wash their hands as much.  After all, “I’m vaccinated.”  Even though the protection had worn off.
 
So, is it true that “Covid deaths no longer overwhelmingly among unvaccinated”?  Absolutely.  It’s just that the efficacy of people who got “vaccinated” well-over a year ago and never got a booster (let alone two) have had the effectiveness of their initial vaccination wear off to the point where they are, essentially, unvaccinated.  Even though they can say “Yes, I’ve been vaccinated!”
 
The only annoyance is that I’m near-certain that unvaccinated people and their advocates will misuse the article completely.
 
And no, most especially since there was a serve-yourself buffet of food, with common serving utensils, along with a guest who was effectively unvaccinated, despite his insistence to the contrary, I did not go to the party.