Courting Disaster

After my first reaction to hearing the news of the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, my almost-immediate next reaction was not about abortion, since everyone was expecting this news following the leak a couple months ago, but rather how the five far-right justices have come very close to putting a final nail in public trust of the Supreme Court.  Between expanding gun use after a massacre of schoolchildren and the very next day getting rid of a 49-year settled and confirmed precedence of women’s right -- all for clear political reason, having zero to do with the law, since nothing legally or scientifically has changed Roe v. Wade was passed and later reaffirmed, these far-right justices are telling the public that the law may not be even remotely dependent on judicial standards but only what political party is in office to appoint and approve them.
 
By this ruling and that on guns, the far-right Justices have shown that politics and personal beliefs will be the foundations of their decisions, not precedence and settled law (indeed confirmed precedence) until legal conditions change which require a change in the law.  Now, these justices are saying that even if absolutely nothing changes that affects existing, settled laws, we will change the law and even take away long-held rights because of our politics and personal belief.
 
Former Attorney General Eric Holder, who ran the Department of Justice, explained it more pointedly in a simple tweet –
 
“Make no mistake, the decisions of the last two days - guns & abortion - are not a function of legal, constitutional interpretation. They are solely the result of a change in Court personnel. This makes the Court a more obvious political institution, not one removed from politics.”
 
Does this mean these far-right Justices will next go against contraceptives, same-sex marriage and more?  We’ll find out.    I don’t think they’d go after interracial marriage – that would be about 10 bridges too far (though honestly, if they actually held to their stated reasons for overturning abortion, they should try to overturn interracial marriage, but far-right hypocrisy has no limits.  And yes, I’d like to see Clarence Thomas write that opinion, as well) – but I could see them at least consider going against same-sex marriage…and maybe even doing so.  All the while ignoring the hypocrisy that by the same justification they could rule against interracial marriage but don’t dare to.
 
By the way, even though everyone was expecting this after the leak two months ago, I’m now very curious how it will impact people’s reaction now that it is official and the law and states start actually stopping abortions.  Last week before the ruling, a friend said a poll showed that just 13% of the country said abortion and guns were important issues to them when it came to voting.  I replied that that poll was taken before abortion was officially ended, not just assumed.  But now that it’s real and final and abortions are banned throughout red states, even with no exceptions, and people can see the literal meaning of it, as the cold, hard reality hits people in the face.  I’ll be curious to see how polls react as it all truly sinks in and we near the election.  (Further, I also said that polls like that tend to ask what issues are most important to you, so people largely rank them.  It doesn’t mean that a “lower” issue is unimportant, nor that people can have several issues that are important to them when it comes to voting.  Just which are the “most” important.  And now, too, with these two Supreme court rulings on abortion and guns, I suspect even that level of important may start to change.  As reality rears its head, and people have to deal with it.)
 
To be clear -- I’m not saying I know to what degree this will change what people say about how important abortion (and guns) are to them as issues.  Just that the landscape affecting that is now totally different once the law has been officially overturned and Red states start action and it now literally impacts women’s lives.
 
Indeed, the big political problem Republicans have with the Roe reversal is that while inflation may still be an issue in November and remains a great concern to Democrats, it has the possibility of improving even a little by then, if not more -- but the Supreme Court decision throwing out abortion rights stands. And will continue to stand.  And worse for Republicans, the public knows that if Republicans win control of Congress, the party is on record wanting to now ban all abortion, for any reason, outright. Something that around 80% of the public (at the very least, I suspect) is against.

That's not going away by the mid-terms. But inflation, as huge a problem as it is for Democrats, at least has the possibility of getting better. And further, even if inflation doesn't go away or even improve, most people know that eventually, or soon, it will. But unless Democrats keep political control and pass a law to basically codify Roe v. Wade, the right of all women to an abortion is gone. 
 
Up until Friday, abortion has only been a national issue.  As of Friday, it is now also a local issue.  State and city, where laws will now be passed that impact how abortion is dealt with in a community. Those are the races that are now just as critical as national campaigns.  To be clear, it will still be a national issue, especially as Republican consider passing a law to ban abortion outright.  (Or, for that matter, if enough Democrats get elected at some point, to pass a law making abortions legal nationally.)  And national, too, for electing senators who vote to confirm Supreme Court justices when there’s an opening.  But now, it is also a local matter.
 
And contraception and same-sex marriage – and if the far-right political Justices weren’t as hypocritical as they are – interracial marriage could be on the ballot, since they all largely fall under the same ruling issues.
 
And for all that, I still think the impact these two rulings this week will have on public confidence in the Supreme Court to act on the law, not politics – a confidence that had already plummeted – risks being profound, and for a long time.