And the Winner Isn’t…

I thought I would try something different here.  I am writing this on Tuesday at 4:38 in the evening, Los Angeles time, a full 22 minutes before the polls close in New Hampshire.  Consider it post-election analysis before the fact.
 
Using by Bob Exit Polling Service, which is based on nothing known in reality, we are calling the race for Trump, with Nikki Halley finishing second in a two-person race by 18 points, topping my suggestion a couple weeks ago that she would lose by 16 points, while all the news media was breathlessly suggesting she was within single digits.
 
Now, of course, she may lose by “only” 10 points – which is hilarious that that would be considered a win (nor single digits) – but then, she might also lose by 25 points.
 
And still, Lawrence O’Donnell on MSNBC is breathlessly talking about how Nikki Hayley is showing that there is real interest in the Republican Party having an alternative to Trump.
 
No, there isn’t.
 
New Hampshire is almost nothing like all other Red states,  It’s not only significantly more moderate than the extreme-fascist right that are the rest of Red states in the GOP, but also, New Hampshire allows independents (also known as “not members of the Republican Party) to vote in the Republican primary if they register in time.  If the Democratic primary was more meaningful this year, these same independents could have registered to vote there.
 
It also bears repeating that the very next race when Haley and Trump are both on the ballot is the South Carolina primary, which is not only Nikki Haley’s home state, but she was its governor – and a recent poll has her losing by 35 points!
 
There is not “real interest” in the Republican party having an alternative to Trump.  That’s why Trump is leading all others by 30-40 points.  Which is the first hint that there is not “real interest” in the GOP for an alternative to Trump. 
 
Further evidence of that is when Sen. Tim Scott endorsed Trump last week – since the only reason Scott is even a senator is because Nikki Haley appointed him!  If Tim Scott even had a whisp of a thought that there was GOP interest in an alternative to Trump, I feel certain he would have at least held off endorsing Trump before the South Carolina primary.
 
Additional evidence is when days later Rep. Nancy Mace – also of South Carolina – who after Jan. 6 held Trump accountable for the Insurrection and who Trump called “absolutely terrible,” “untruthful,” “crazy,” “disloyal,” “a terrible person” and “despised by almost everyone” while endorsing her GOP primary opponent in 2022 – endorsed Trump, over Nikki Haley, the former governor of her own state.
 
No, there is not “real interest” in the Republican party having an alternative to Trump.
 
And no, there is no path for Nikki Haley to win enough delegates to get the Republican nomination to be president.
 
And we haven’t even mentioned Super Tuesday on March 5 when Trump is expected to crush the Haley campaign and may even end up with enough delegates after that night to clinch the Republican nomination.  All the more so since -- despite what Joy Ann Reid and Michael Steele said on MSNBC about the states distributing delegates proportionally -- they are “functionally” winner-take-all, because of rule changes the Trump campaign pushed through last year.  (Something Steve Kornacki, not surprisingly, noted correctly was the reality.)
 
It’s worth adding that despite breathless news media assertions, Nikki Haley is not in a two-person race with Trump because she's Republican's second choice -- but because (and only because) unlike other candidates, she stayed in the race despite having absolutely no chance to beat Trump.
 
All this said, I do expect Nikki Haley to make a glowing statement that it was a great night because she finished second to Trump.  In a two-person race.  Where she didn’t lose by 32 points, like in Iowa.
 
[UPDATE:  I swear this is true.  I wrote the above paragraph before Nikki Haley gave her speech.  As I said, I began writing this before the polls even closed.  And she opened it by saying – “What a great night, and God is so good.  Thank you, New Hampshire for the love, kindness and support – and a great night here tonight!”]
 
Further, over half the Republican senators and over half the party’s congressmen have already endorsed Trump.  Nikki Haley has one member of Congress who has endorsed her.  Ralph Norman from her state of South Carolina.  Eleven GOP governors have endorsed Trump, two have endorsed Haley.
 
No, there is not real interest in the Republican Party having an alternative to Trump. 
 
(The only “real interest” in Nikki Haley has pretty much nothing to do with Nikki Haley, it appears.  It’s among people financing her campaign, terrified of Trump leading the party again or him again in the White House.  But that’s it, that’s as far as it flies.)
 
By the way, Nikki Haley could still conceive get the GOP nomination.  But not because she has a path to beat Trump.  She doesn’t have a path and won’t beat him.  But after Trump gets the nomination and is the official Republican candidate, if – for some improbable reason – he doesn’t run, Nikki Haley could become the new GOP nominee.  Though I don’t know how that process works – and I’m not sure the GOP knows yet either.
 
Actually, in the end, I don’t even think the Republican primary is the big story of the night out of New Hampshire.  After all, Nikki Haley was behind in the polls there by 19 points.  She was going to lose.  And will not get the Republican nomination.
 
But to me, the bigger story was the Democratic primary.  President Biden wasn’t even on the ballot (because the party changed the order of primaries, and New Hampshire decided to go first anyway, despite being told if they did so, no delegates would be awarded).  However, a couple of minor, but semi-known candidates were, notably Marianne Williamson and Rep. Dean Phillips, who are waging national campaigns to challenge the president.  And despite not being on the ballot, enough New Hampshire voters wrote in President Biden’s name – and he was declared the winner.  Not only the winner, but with 68% of the vote.  As a write-in candidate who did not show up to campaign in the state.  It’s not a major thing, but noteworthy.
 
And far more significant than Nikki Haley getting pummeled again in a Republican primary, despite the news media insisting she was within single digits and has a path to win.  Which she doesn’t.
 
Okay, that’s all started before the polls were even closed and long before the final results are in.
 
We’ll stop now and watch to see how close the Bob Exit Polling Service got...

UPDATE:  At 11:05 PM with 89% of the vote in, Trump is leading Nikki Haley by 11.4%.  That's smaller than I anticipated -- and not great for the de facto party leader -- but still a substantive, double-digit win for getting the GOP nomination.  Which is why everything else in the article stands.  Including that among specifically Republican voters only, Trump beat Nikki Haley by...50 points!  In moderate New Hampshire.  Or, another way of saying that is --

No, there is no real interest in the Republican Party having an alternative to Trump.