Not everyone. But as I explained to him, you don't need everyone. You need near-every Democrat (and you most definitely have that), and you only need to shift 3-5% in the middle. And you'll get that shift -- and I feel certain you'll get more than that small amount. Because, as I said to him, people remember THIS. But will they, he said, because they always seem to forget.
They will remember, I said. "Well, I hope you're right," he replied somewhat tentatively and started to ramble off in negative concern. I completely understand the concern, but I cut him off -- People remember they had to hole up at home in isolation for months, I said. And they remember that their children were out of school for half of the year and at home with them, and remember they went lost their jobs and were on unemployment and remember that they saw a million Americans get infected and 100,000 American die, maybe many more, maybe someone in their family or a friend, and remember that the economy went into recession, and remember that their company went bankrupt, and that they didn't have a job to go back to, or that their friend didn't. You don't forget that. It doesn't get buried. You don't forget that.
You don't forget that.
Yesterday, two polls were released and for different reasons they were both significant.
One of them was from Rasmussen Polling. Rasmussen is important not for their polling being the most accurate -- far from it -- but it's the one poll that always leans heavily Republican. Three weeks ago, they're the poll that showed Trump's approval at 49%, when everyone else had him around 44%. Only four days ago, they had Trump at 48% approval. Yesterday, their results were --
Approve -- 44%
Disapprove -- 53%
More to the point, this is the same 44% as their previous poll three days earlier, so that means the number is holding for the moment, not a random jump. Again, this is Rasmussen. Which is always 4-6 points higher than everyone else.
Also, there was the new University of North Florida poll out yesterday, This was a poll specifically for the important swing state of Florida among registered voters. (Not likely voters, to be clear.) And as a reminder, Trump won Florida in 2016 in a squeaker, by just 1.2%. But he won. So, it's very critical for him to hold the sate. And in the new poll of Florida, for the first time in this election cycle, Joe Biden moved ahead of Trump. And outside the margin of error.
Biden - 46%
Trump -- 40%
And here's the thing about all these polls -- conditions are not getting better for Trump. We haven't even hit the "Pearl Harbor" that his Surgeon General said is coming. We still have six states that haven't even made stay-at-home orders, so their cases of infection and death haven't get started to kick in. And the additional waves of "Pearl Harbors" that all experts have said will come aren't in view yet. And people's money hasn't started to run out yet. (Well, most people's.)
And tonight on Lawrence O'Donnell's show, Dr. Zeke Emmanuel said that people shouldn't start going out to lunches and socializing in big groups or return to their normal way of life until we have a vaccine for COVID-19 -- and that is at best 12 to the more-likely 18 months off!!!
(To be clear, not every medical expert may agree with this. Or may. And perhaps some helpful therapy antibodies will be discovered earlier to at least treat those with the virus, like from current research at the Mayo Clinic. Or whatever. The larger point is -- even when life re-opens, it will not be returning to full normal anytime soon. People remember things like this.)
Conditions are not getting better for Trump. Moreover, as condition degrade, he hasn't surrounded himself with a team that is capable of handling a crisis, let alone a crisis like this. Consider: he put Jared Kusher in charge of overseeing FEMA!! And we've seen how Trump himself acts when he's cornered -- he lashes out at others, lies, places the blame at everyone else, lies, fires people, and lies.
And we haven't get had people come down with the known, horrible side effects from taking the malaria drug that Trump keeps recommending contrary to doctors' advice. Let alone the deaths that will likely come from it (Well, additional deaths, because there's already one that we know of.)
People don't forget this. The're pretty good at remembering.
Further, there will be a bipartisan committee in Congress that will study the government response. And among the things they will "discover" are things we already know, but aren't "official," like how the Trump administration did actually know about the COVID-19 threat as early as January, but chose to do nothing to protect the country, for the sake of Trump's re-election. And things will come out about that, like they did already today when Axios uncovered a memo that Trump's economic adviser Peter Navarro warned in late January that the COVID-19 virus could kill more than half a million American lives! And Trump didn't act. And not long after, Navarro got even more concerned and warned that it could take a million lives!! And Trump didn't act. You can read about it here.
People remember things like that. You don't get to hide it away with the next lie and bigger outrage. (Besides, don't even try to imagine if there was a "bigger outrage"...)
Back in 1980, Ronald Reagan helped himself to winning the presidency by asking, "Are you better off today than you were four years ago?" Things were a little worse economically at that point -- but Life as We Know It had not changed. It has now.
Life will improve. Scientists will find a cure. Businesses will start again. New companies will find a new market. People's lives will return to normal. But it will be a new normal. And many people will have been pummeled. And though life will go on, and having things to enjoy and grow with and love and appreciate and laugh about will return, the life of just three months ago will be gone. Life will be back, but life will be different.
People remember things like that.
And the elected members of the Republican Party just keep enabling him and are complicit.