As I noted on Wednesday, the whole story about Hillary Clinton suggesting that Tulsi Gabbard was being groomed by the Russians to run as a third party candidate was based on a mistake in the New York Times which they've subsequently corrected. What Secretary Clinton said was that the Republican Party -- not Russia -- was grooming a Democrat primary candidate to run on a third party. (Besides which, she didn't name anyone specific.)
All that aside, I wrote elsewhere that much as I hoped there wouldn't be such a third party candidate, I wasn't overly concerned by it since such a person would likely be moderate to leaning conservative -- since I find it profoundly unlikely that any of the strong liberals running would ever even consider running as a third party candidate -- and as such would likely draw more support away from Trump than a Democrat. In fact, Democrats are so focused on getting Trump out of office that I've had many people say that though they have favorites in the race, they'd vote in the General Election for any of the Democrats candidates running who got nominated, even Maryanne Williamson. I of course received great disagreement about this, some considering me deeply naive. The most thoughtful criticism came from a friend who wrote that "you are assigning too much intelligence to the average voter. Even the average Democrat isn’t that well informed or knowledgeable. Few are able to discern a 'plant' designed to distract or deflect or otherwise muddy the waters." I replied online, but think it's worth commenting passing along those thoughts here. First, it will not shock anyone to learn that, no, I do not believe I am assigning too much intelligence to the average voter. But I say that because I think my points are supported by what we've actually seen in real world politics. For example, we've seen that voters are supporting Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders by around 10 points over Trump. (Even Pete Buttigieg is polling ahead of Trump.) And we've see polls that show around 55% of Americans want Trump impeached and convicted. And we saw the Democratic Blue Wave in the 2018 mid-term elections that overwhelmingly gave Democrats significant control of the House. I'm not going to bore readers here with loads of statistics and poll results, but there are many along these same lines. But also, I meant it when I said I've had many people say to me, "I would vote for any Democratic candidate against Trump, even Maryanne Williamson." I do not offer that as proof of anything, it isn't, but as a general sensibility I've perceived. As much to the point is that this isn't 2016. It is hard for me to imagine that most people who voted for Jill Stein in the last presidential election don't feel burned and aggrieved in getting Trump. Further, and deeply importantly, Trump isn't the outsider who can attack others with impunity, free from response, but has a record now -- and a horrific one that has made him the only president never to have a 50% approval, now hovering around only 41%. A horrific record that allowed Democrats, as I noted, to have a landslide win to take back the House. And he's on the verge of being impeached. For three years, Democratic activist groups have organized resistance against Trump. Unlike 2016, the coming election is not being positioned as "Are you unhappy with government and do you prefer Hillary or that outsider Trump?" It's "Are you horrified by Trump and his record and do you think it's critical for America that he not be re-elected." Furthermore, the "Get out the vote" ground game that Democratic resistance groups have been putting together for three years through rallies and resistance events are, I'm quite sure, focused on reaching the very voters most likely to waver -- since the ones who've been waiting anxiously, chomping at the bit for three years to vote Democratic need no encouragement. And given what we've seen in the polls and public protests and general responses, I believe that most "average" voters do get it. Not all, but most. That this is about Trump in 2020, and everything else at issue (while valid) is a distant second. But significant as all that is, this is the most important thing -- my whole point was NOT that no Democratic voter will vote for a third party candidate. I'm sure some will. Rather, my point was that I believe MORE Republicans are likely to vote for a third party candidate than will Democrats. And I say that because this segment of the Republican Party is sickened by the idea of voting for Trump yet can't see themselves voting for a Democrat, and a third party candidate gives them that option. And I base this, in part, on the reality that we know, in fact, there have been Republicans SO GALLED by Trump that they actually left the party! It think it is profoundly reasonable to suggest that there are many moderate GOP voters in purple states (and yes, maybe not as politicians, but as voters they really do exist) who are almost as galled, but not willing to make a full break and leave the party -- however but given the chance to vote for someone moderate (let alone leaning conservative) as a third party candidate who would permit them to stay a Republican, but not vote for Trump and not vote for a Democrat, they will leap at that. My initial comment was not a guess of whimsy or wishful thinking. I might be wrong, no question -- though I feel strongly of course that I'm right -- but before writing it publicly, it was fully thought out first for what I believe are supportable reasons. One may disagree, fair enough. But I wasn't underestimating anyone's ability to be fooled, just putting into perspective what I've observed on both sides of the aisle over the past three years. It's absolutely possible that my observations aren't as fully realized as I think. But these are among my many reasons why I think they are. If the GOP is actually grooming a Democrat to run as a third party candidate, I think it will draw more votes from the Republican Party more than from the Democratic Party.
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AuthorRobert J. Elisberg is a political commentator, screenwriter, novelist, tech writer and also some other things that I just tend to keep forgetting. Feedspot Badge of Honor
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