The Trump administration has become like a "bobbing for apples" barrel at a carnival. Just stick your head inside where everything is swirling around, take a bit, and you'll end up with something juicy. I didn't have the slightest idea what to write about for today, and didn't want to do one of those "round-up pieces" because there was much too much research involved for even that. So, I just closed my eyes, dunked and came up with the story that most came to mind.
And that was the Quinnipiac Poll. As I've noted in the past, reading any single poll is meaningless. You have to watch several of them, and do so over time to see their trends. But still, as the expression goes, it does give a snapshot of the day, especially when the poll is one that's respected with a good track record. And Quinnipiac is. There are numerous results in their poll yesterday that leaped out. The one that got the most attention was the question that compared six Democratic candidates head-to-head against Trump. And all six of them came out ahead, with the smallest margin as large as four points. Bloomberg 51-42 Sanders 51-43 Biden 50-43 Klobuchar 49-43 Warren 48-44 Buttigieg 47-43 Again, these results are meaningless in terms of who will win the general election. But they have meaning in showing the temperature of the public. And consider: if you're a Democrat and dismiss these numbers as totally without meaning, how would you feel if the result were reversed? You might still say they're meaningless, but you'd also likely be sickened to your gut. In the end, this is perhaps the biggest takeaway from this question and its results -- if these are Trump's numbers after his "best week ever," this is not where a candidate wants to start a campaign and go into November. The second result from the poll might be even more meaningful, though. It asked black voters which Democratic candidates they supported. Joe Biden still was in the lead, but his number was down significantly from 49% to 27%. But it was the second place result that stood out -- Mike Bloomberg with 22%, even with the hurdle of his stop-and-search policy in New York City. As I said, I think this is even more notable than the “head-to-head” question. That one is a national poll and therefore isn’t fully meaningful in an election determined by state. But a poll of general black support among Democrats has nothing to do with blue, red and purple states, nor with anything to do with Electoral votes. What it shows is support overall within the party, in case if Bloomberg gets the nomination, and it confirms what I wrote about the other day Jason Johnson and Al Sharpton said they were hearing about the black community. That black voters won’t keep away from voting if Bloomberg is the nominee. Almost more to the point, I think, it supports how much they hate Trump and are motivated to vote. And to that end, it shows something beyond just Bloomberg. It shows that if they'll support someone they've historically had a problem with just because they want to beat Trump, then they are deeply motivated to vote for whoever the Democratic candidate is. That vote can't be taken for granted, but this shows it's to build on. And the final Quinnipiac Poll that I found of great note was when the public was asked if they found the Senate trial "unfair." And by a massive 24-point margin, the answer was -- yes, 59% to 35%. That speaks volumes, but not just about Trump, that he wasn't "exonerated" in the slightest, but even more about the Republican senators. Since they're the ones who held the unfair trial. And with many more Republicans up for re-election than Democrats this year, that is yet another starting point you don't want to be at. Especially since...well, okay, here we go -- this is not about Trump, we know who he is. This is about the elected members of the Republican Party who enable him and are complicit.
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AuthorRobert J. Elisberg is a political commentator, screenwriter, novelist, tech writer and also some other things that I just tend to keep forgetting. Feedspot Badge of Honor
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