What kind of a day was it? A day like any other, except -- you are there.
And it was a day like any other in Trumpland...although even by Trumpland standards it was pretty swirling. Under normal circumstances in normal times, the Supreme Court decision that says the subpoenas against Trump can go forward, since no American is above the law. While it's not likely, though possible for New York State , though bordering on improbable that the public won't see Trump's tax returns before the election, it was concerning enough for Trump (and "concerning" here will be defined as "horrifying" that he went on another Twitter meltdown facing the probability of releasing his taxes as evidence against him in a court case. And that's probably far more critical to him then even the election. You win or lose an election, life goes on. You lose in court, your may go to prison. Would it be nice to see the tax returns before the election? Absolutely -- but given the world today and Trump's approval and standing against Joe Biden, that's less important than a year ago. But still, that's just one issue on the table yesterday. I mean, boy howdy, the Trump Wheel o' Wonder is just spinning wildly. So much to choose from, it's almost enough to make you dizzy. And where it ended up is on the election.. The latest Gallup Poll was released yesterday. It had Trump’s support within the Republican Party up from 87% to 91%. (I’ve long had a theory about that, which I’ll get to in a moment.) But in the FAR more important category of Independents, since they're often who decide elections, his support is down from 38% to…33%. Horrific. Both the drop of five points, and only being 33% approval. As for Democratic approval, it's almost a joke, dropping from 5% to 2%. Okay, back to my theory about Trump’s approval within the GOP which I've yammered for several years at this point, it's that he has been driving off a lot of Republicans from the party, so they no longer get counted by pollsters as Republicans. As a result, it’s a smaller, more concentrated Republican base, so his numbers within the party go up. And these Gallup numbers sort of support that theory – Trump went up 4 points in the GOP, but dropped 5 points among Independents. It’s not that he’s gaining popularity in the Republican Party, it’s that they’re fleeing him. And (I think) that’s why his approval within the Republican Party has always been so high. There was also a huge result from the highly-respected Pew Research. It shows that young people from 18-29 support Joe Biden over Trump by -- are you ready -- FORTY POINTS, 68-28!! More than just the margin, the even greater importance of this is that if any group feels bullet-proof going out to vote at polls during a pandemic...it's them. And with guns, civil rights and environment as important issues this year -- issues that are specifically of top interest to these voters -- they're likely motivated to vote, which hasn't generally been the case in the past. Moreover, many young people (like most Americans, but more so…) probably will have nothing better to do when the election roles – “Hey, you want to go vote today?” It won't just be a civic duty, or an act of self-interest...but simply Something To Do, to get out of the house. And if you have to stand in line for six hours, party on! Further, there was a report from the high-quality Cook Political Report which had a remarkable finding. They were saying that Trump is actually on the verge of reaching the point of no return -- four months before the election. More than that, they said instead of a Blue Wave, it could be a Democratic Tsunami. Again, four months before the election. It it truly bizarre to consider that we might be at the point of no return four months before the election, but I can see the thinking. As I noted on Thursday, what other cards does Trump have to play to not only make things better, but good enough to erase the 10-point margin many polls are showing? In fact, I think it will just keep getting worse for Trump, since he’s shown that he’s thrown himself all-in on denying the danger of the pandemic. And he doesn’t have to skills to get better at his job and is already out of his depth. Nor does he have The Best People around him to help. And we see Republicans around him starting to bail, notably those senators saying they won't be attending the Republican Convention, and it seems reasonable to think more will. But above all…I think the public is finally getting a full opportunity to truly see Trump. A manic, paranoid, racist, sociopathic, pathologically-lying, malignantly narcissistic simpering child. And it’s one thing to support someone as president because He’s the President. But another when you get to CHOOSE who you want as president. And to do so after having lived through the manic, exhausting angst of Trump for four years and now a pandemic and economic meltdown and massive unemployment of 47 million Americans and national social change. And 135,822 Americans have already died, and are expected to hit at least 200,000. And you get to CHOOSE who you want as president, and the other option is “Sleepy Joe Biden,” which Trump doesn't understand is actually a relief to most people I suspect -- calm, steady, quiet, nice, comforting, middle-of-the-road, a little liberal, sleepy peaceful Joe Biden, and you can CHOOSE him. I think it will all just reinforce the concept among so much of the weary, sheltering public of “God almighty, get rid of him out of office already.” The only slight positive for Trump is that the economy can possibly improve. But here's the big hurdle for him: that doesn’t mean it will be better than before. (It won't be close.) Or even good. (Even that is a long way off.) It only means that, at best, it will be "better" than the disastrous economic meltdown we're in now. And the problem for Trump is that I think most people know he helped cause that disastrous economic meltdown by his inaction and truly horrible choices. And many of those 47 million lost jobs aren’t even coming back. And whatever improvement there is will still be under pandemic, social distancing, wear-a-mask conditions. And so you add all the other hellish things on top of the perhaps slight improvement over "disastrous economic meltdown" – assuming there is even a slight improvement – and you still have a pandemic, an very bad economy, massive job loss, most schools still closed, probably 200,000 dead, national social change…and a manic, paranoid, racist, sociopathic, patholgically-lying, maligantly-narcissistic, simpering child in charge. And…You Get to CHOOSE Who You Want as President. Trump has lost the women’s vote, by a lot. He’s lost the black vote, by a lost. He’s lost the Hispanic and Asian vote, by a lot. He’s lost the young vote, by a lot. He’s even lost the GOP standby, the senior vote, by enough -- a a major drop from their previous, relied-upon GOP support. He’s probably lost the college educated white male vote. And...none of that is likely to change. Those votes are lock in by hatred and anger and fear. So, all that’s left is the non-college white male vote. And even that is probably closer than before. And could conceivably change, if only slightly, if their lives get terribly worse. And you not only can’t win on just that vote, you probably can’t keep a tsunami from hitting. And finally, a Democratic Tsunami isn't about Trump. That's about the Republican Party. And if so, it is massively well-deserved. After all -- this isn't about Trump, we know who he is. This about the elected members of the Republican Party who have enabled him willingly and enthusiastically for four years, have blood on their hands and are fully complicit.
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AuthorRobert J. Elisberg is a political commentator, screenwriter, novelist, tech writer and also some other things that I just tend to keep forgetting. Feedspot Badge of Honor
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