Recently, I wrote a piece here about how it's really not a good idea to start a war with the FBI, CIA and National Security Agency. And within the past two days we've seen why.
Keep in mind, the Washington Post story about Trump leaking highly-classified information to the Russians, impressive journalism work as it was, didn't come from thin air. It came from an intelligence source. And that started the ball rolling. You really don't want the FBI, CIA and NSA as your enemy. And it goes further. The latest story as a result of all this past disastrous week for Trump is that fired FBI director James Comey kept detailed notes on not just his last dinner with Trump, but all his meetings with Trump. The report has two sources which confirm this -- but you really don't need even one source here for confirmation. You just need a basic dose of common sense. We're talking the FBI Director, after all. Who wouldn't think that the Director of the FBI wouldn't keep detailed notes on every single meeting he had with the president?! Of course he has note, incredibly meticulous ones, I'm sure. Where sources do come in handy here is in what those Comey notes say, and we're told that one thing Trump asked of the FBI Director is that the Agency drop its investigation of Mike Flynn. If this is true, you could consider it a Really Bad Thing for Trump. Of course, in the end, far more important than two sources are...well, the actual Comey notes themselves. I think it's reasonable to assume they exist. And for that, that we'll see them. And find out. As a result of this come two numbers that are problematic for the White House. The first is that the latest Gallup Poll shows Trump's approval down to just 38%, a ghastly number after only 116 days in office. And then there's the PPP poll which says that 48% of the public would like to see Trump impeached, while only 41% says no. This isn't to say that Trump will be impeached. Rather, it's to show the mindset of the public towards the administration. And this latter poll figure is the most disastrous of all. Consider: the American electorate just voted to make Trump president -- and after only 116 days, they want him impeached. And to make this number even worse -- and yes, it's possible to do that -- the PPP poll on impeachment was taken before the news story broke about Trump leaking code-word level classified intelligence to the Russian Foreign Minister and Russian Ambassador. I've had some ongoing debates about polls in social media, and it's my observation from that and news stories that most Republicans, indeed much of the general public, misunderstand poll results from the last election. So many, particularly conservatives, take false comfort in poll numbers by claiming how wrong they were in the past election. But...they weren't wrong, for the most part. Most national polls were general polls and said Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote by 3% -- and Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 3%. State polls, which are far more tenuous with larger margins of error, did get the results wrong. But even there, it is false comfort to rely on this, because -- first of all -- "margin of error" means just that. All polls say their results have that chance of error built in. But secondly, the error that polls were off in state results were minuscule, a point or two, but enough to shift the returns in enough states to affect the Electoral College. They weren't off by, say, a massive 20 points; they were very close, just off a bit in a few states. So, finding solace in supposed "bad-polling" is risky business when your favorite is hovering at 38%. By the way, the PPP poll was even worse for Trump. It showed that Trump voters by a margin of 49-41% wish that Hillary Clinton had been elected! And again, this is a poll taken before the Trump classified leak. And after only 116 days in office. Boy howdy, talk about Buyer's Remorse. The warranty on your toast is longer than that.
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AuthorRobert J. Elisberg is a political commentator, screenwriter, novelist, tech writer and also some other things that I just tend to keep forgetting. Feedspot Badge of Honor
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