Okay, so we have a temporary end to the Trump Shutdown. And it all comes to a head again in three weeks, the day after Valentines Day. The general consensus seems to be that we'll have to face this mess once again and go through it all over. And it's hard to go against that general consensus given the mess of things in the Republican Party enabling Trump, and his yammering about his Wall.
That said, My sense – an absolute total guess, of course, based on nothing more than whimsy and limited observation – is that although this is just a temporary end to the shutdown, it won’t start up again in February, but a settlement between Democrats and Republicans will be reached.
I say this in part because I heard a favorite Mitch McConnell quote yesterday, something like “There are no lessons from a second kick in the head by a mule.” And having another shutdown would be a second kick in the Republican head by a mule. That's because the only way there would be a second shutdown is if Republicans decide to insist on the Trump Wall again. And yes, I know that Trump wants it, and what Trump wants, Republicans enable. The thing is -- we already saw GOP defections in the Senate for the Democratic proposal last Thursday. Further, Senate Republicans don't want a Wall. If they did, they'd have voted to fund one at any time during the past two years. Moreover, I can’t begin to imagine the national outrage at Republicans if they shut down the government again over that Wall -- which the public doesn't want either and not only has said so overwhelmingly in polls, but it's how they voted overwhelmingly in the mid-term elections, giving Democrats control in the House by a wide margins. (Yes, I know the Trump base was livid about the temporary settlement. But that was the Trump base. They were furious at Trump for wimping out. But the national outrage would be at Republicans for shutting down the government -- again.) And the Republicans in the Senate know that this would be the reaction, they've seen the polls, they've seen Trump's numbers drop, they've seen people at their offices outraged. And Mitch McConnell -- the Senate Majority Leader who controls all this -- has not only seen it all, too, but one of his favorite quotes is: "There are no lessons from a second kick in the head by a mule."
So, my total guess -- and one that I wouldn't put any money down in a bet, but it's still my guess -- is that Republicans will work out a deal with Democrats. Yes, Trump will veto it, and Republicans (I think...) will help override the veto. Might Trump actually call a national emergency? Sure. But from all I’ve read that would be challenged and have a very difficult time flying. And it seems to me much more bluster than real. And even if it's real, the end result will be blustery since it won't go anywhere. After all, by the time mid-February rolls around, it will have been two months since this supposed-"National Emergency" was brought up by Trump. And that's a pretty darn long time for a National Emergency to plod along with no effect.
In fact, the only National Emergency we've seen is that when the government is shut down for a month, the country is put at risk.
That said, My sense – an absolute total guess, of course, based on nothing more than whimsy and limited observation – is that although this is just a temporary end to the shutdown, it won’t start up again in February, but a settlement between Democrats and Republicans will be reached.
I say this in part because I heard a favorite Mitch McConnell quote yesterday, something like “There are no lessons from a second kick in the head by a mule.” And having another shutdown would be a second kick in the Republican head by a mule. That's because the only way there would be a second shutdown is if Republicans decide to insist on the Trump Wall again. And yes, I know that Trump wants it, and what Trump wants, Republicans enable. The thing is -- we already saw GOP defections in the Senate for the Democratic proposal last Thursday. Further, Senate Republicans don't want a Wall. If they did, they'd have voted to fund one at any time during the past two years. Moreover, I can’t begin to imagine the national outrage at Republicans if they shut down the government again over that Wall -- which the public doesn't want either and not only has said so overwhelmingly in polls, but it's how they voted overwhelmingly in the mid-term elections, giving Democrats control in the House by a wide margins. (Yes, I know the Trump base was livid about the temporary settlement. But that was the Trump base. They were furious at Trump for wimping out. But the national outrage would be at Republicans for shutting down the government -- again.) And the Republicans in the Senate know that this would be the reaction, they've seen the polls, they've seen Trump's numbers drop, they've seen people at their offices outraged. And Mitch McConnell -- the Senate Majority Leader who controls all this -- has not only seen it all, too, but one of his favorite quotes is: "There are no lessons from a second kick in the head by a mule."
So, my total guess -- and one that I wouldn't put any money down in a bet, but it's still my guess -- is that Republicans will work out a deal with Democrats. Yes, Trump will veto it, and Republicans (I think...) will help override the veto. Might Trump actually call a national emergency? Sure. But from all I’ve read that would be challenged and have a very difficult time flying. And it seems to me much more bluster than real. And even if it's real, the end result will be blustery since it won't go anywhere. After all, by the time mid-February rolls around, it will have been two months since this supposed-"National Emergency" was brought up by Trump. And that's a pretty darn long time for a National Emergency to plod along with no effect.
In fact, the only National Emergency we've seen is that when the government is shut down for a month, the country is put at risk.
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