There is something really wonderful about a caucus. Very homespun with a great sense of tradition about how they're run, people getting together from their communities to spend a lot of time participating in the small-d democratic process. And when there is a caucus, the results are all that we can go by. The numbers are final and that's that. (Unless we're talking about Iowa, in which case they may never be final. But I digress...)
However, although the results of a caucus are definitive, we still must recognize they are a caucus, which is a totally different process from standard voting. And the most substantive difference, beyond even how the process works, is the time required to participate. Nevada tried to help with that by allowing for early voting where you list favorites in order, but then it's not really a caucus, but rather a combination of one and how they vote for the Oscars. And the results you get are colored by this. Take a look at the presidential election 2016. That year, 539,260 people voted in Nevada for Hillary Clinton. By comparison, turnout in the Nevada caucus is expected to be only about 120,000. That's just 22% of people who voted in the presidential election. While it's true that fewer people vote in a primary than in the general election, the numbers are much closer for a presidential race than one that's just between local candidates. I took a look at the recent race in New Hampshire (which is a primary, not a caucus), and about 80% of Democrats who voted for Clinton in 2016 voted in the recent primary. That's a significantly higher percentage than in the Nevada caucus. The thing is, what I wish is that when analysts look at the results of the Nevada caucus and proclaim whoever to be the definitive leader among Democrats (now, of course Bernie Sanders, but whoever the person will be in subsequent years), or look at who didn't do well, it would be wonderful if they kept this perspective in mind and actually at least mention that only 22% of Democrats who voted in the 2016 general election voted in the caucus. And that it favors candidates who can get people willing to attend the long hours required to caucus. That enthusiasm to vote is a great thing and important. But it's only part of the story. Just 22% of it. The reality is that it's just harder to participate and vote in a caucus than a primary. So, while we have to accept the results for what they are, they are nonetheless skewed, which isn't the ideal way to try to pick a presidential nominee. I'm not the only one who feels this way, of course. But one name who agrees stands out. And that would be Harry Reid, the former Democratic Senate Minority Leader and former senator of Nevada -- who was instrumental in pushing to make the Nevada caucus the third race in the primary season. He told the New York Times about his own state -- “All caucuses should be a thing of the past. They don’t work for a multitude of reasons.” If a state wants to hold a caucus, that's fine. It's their state, their option. But a political party shouldn't reward that and allow them to schedule their caucus early in the process that they, the party, should control. And if the state chooses to do so -- fine, their choice. But the party should then declare that zero of the delegates will be included in a candidates total as unauthorized. All caucuses, as Harry Reid -- who helped push caucuses for his own state -- says, should be a thing of the past. They don't work. And they not only don't work, they don't work for a multitude of reasons.
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On last night's episode of Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, the main story was particularly timely given Trump's visit today to India. It's a story on India and their very popular, but extremely controversial (notably for how harshly his administration deals with the country's Muslim minority) Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, with whom Trump just announced a $3 billion arms deal. Making the details of the story all the more noteworthy -- yet entertaining and able to be very funny, as well The inveterate Chris Dunn sent me the link to an article in the New York Times about the botched quarantine for the coronavirus on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. It was a terrific, detailed, fascinating article, which you can find here, but that's not the reason he sent it. It was because it turns out that someone we both know from a long while back is mentioned several times in the piece, and she and her husband even have several photo credits. It's a lovely lady named Gay Courter, who is a successful novelist and non-fiction writer and also has served as an advocate ad litum for kids in children's court. We haven't been in touch very often in the intervening years -- she lives in Florida -- though we did exchange emails a few years back.
I just sent her off a note -- and though I'm sure when you're written up in the New York Times you get inundated by emails, I heard back from her fairly quickly. I guess I shouldn't be surprised by that -- it turns out that she and her husband are still isolated, so I guess there isn't a whole lot to do after a while, and answering emails is high on the list of activities. She says that so far they haven't tested positive for the disease, and wake up every day to reveille, making her think that she's Private Benjamin. She added that they spend time thinking of sick jokes, and asked if I had any new quarantine quips for her... (I didn't have any quips, though a couple of Fun Facts she could pass along. Several years back, I finally made it through the entire Will and Ariel Durant Story of Civilization, reading one volume a year over the holidays. In one of them, they wrote about a major outbreak of some virus (I forget exactly when this was or for what) between France and Italy. As a result, people had to be isolated on an island for 40 days. The French word for “40” is – quarante. Hence, quarantine! (Also, the word in Italian for island is “isola.” Which brings us – isolation.) By the way, Gay has a well-regarded book (4.5 stars on Amazon out of 5) about her experience as a child advocate, I Speak for This Child. If you're interested, you can find it here.) All that aside, there was one weird thing in the New York Times article, part of a chart with a Q&A on the virus. At one point it says, “Scientists have estimated that each infected person could spread it to somewhere between 1.5 and 3.5 people without effective containment measures.” Now, as far as I can tell, the way it is with human beings, “somewhere between 1.5 and 3.5 people” can only be 2 or 3 people. I mean, I’ve scratched my brain as hard as I can and am not yet aware of any other figure it could be. As such, saying “…could spread it to 2 or 3 people” is a shorter and far more clear way of expressing that. Today's guest contestant on the 'Not My Job' segment of the NPR game quiz show Wait, Wait...Don't Tell Me! is actress Isabella Rossellini. Her conversation with host Peter Sagal is very entertaining, starting with talking about her famous parents, but then shifts to a series of 40 short films on animal behavior she made later in her career after going back to school and getting a Masters degree in biology. She also laughs more here than I think in all of her feature films combined.
The guest on this episode of 3rd & Fairfax, the official podcast of the Writers Guild of America is screenwriter Susannah Grant, who wrote the screenplays for such films as Erin Brockovich (for which she received an Oscar nomination), 28 Days and Pochahontas, as well as four episodes of the Netflix mini-series Unbelievable, who talks about her career.
From the archives. Today's contestant is William White from Portland, Oregon. I got the hidden song pretty quickly, though it may not be terribly familiar to everyone, but it's not an unknown song. As for the composer style, it's one of those I just toss coins in the air and guess -- though as the contestant was analyzing how he came to his guess, his words suggested another composer to me, so I switched moments before he made his guess...and that was it.
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AuthorRobert J. Elisberg is a political commentator, screenwriter, novelist, tech writer and also some other things that I just tend to keep forgetting. Feedspot Badge of Honor
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